Analysis: Labor’s predicted cataclysmic defeat could trigger internal war

Labor’s 3557-day stint in power is expected to end in two weeks, then a long drawn out battle for who leads them in opposition will begin, writes Hayden Johnson.

A prolonged and divisive leadership contest could engulf Labor from October 27 if, as recent polls indicate, the party suffers a convincing defeat.

Labor’s 3557-day stint in power is expected to end in two weeks, when the fight for who leads them in opposition will begin.

A cataclysmic defeat could set the scene for a drawn-out battle for the leadership between two candidates who believe it’s their destiny to sit in the big chair.

Queenslanders got an audition during Labor’s health week when, in the left corner, Health Minister Shannon Fentiman let loose to flex her political muscle.

She stood alongside Premier Steven Miles at four press conferences this week and ended up speaking for only slightly less time than him.

Journalists peppered Ms Fentiman about her poisoned chalice portfolio and the harrowing stories of patients receiving poor care.

FOLLOW OUR COMPLETE ELECTION COVERAGE HERE

Even the harshest critic of this ruthless, yet effective minister would acknowledge the woman dubbed ‘Fento’ has a knack for it.

On December 12 she revealed her hand of ambition and came within two union bosses of becoming Queensland’s 40th premier.

That ambition hasn’t suddenly washed away.

Premier Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman on the election campaign trail. Picture: Adam Head.

Her candidacy in December was announced with one-eye on November.

Ministers and MPs will publicly say – as Ms Fentiman did in the context of revisiting termination of pregnancy – they’re only focused on winning.

“I don’t have too much time to think about what comes next,” she said.

In truth, Labor heads have given a passing thought to what might happen if, as polls predict, Mr Miles’s short reign ends.

Ms Fentiman is the favourite, but her colleagues did not flock to her in December and there’s a chance they wouldn’t this time.

She’s supposedly fighting a battle in her electorate of Waterford, which one colleague suggested was because of her focus on being a minister.

It’s likely only one Labor MP stands in the way of Ms Fentiman becoming opposition leader – Deputy Premier Cameron Dick.

Confining the LNP and a Premier David Crisafulli to one term would require calculated, cut through attack – for which nobody in Labor is better.

Hailing from Labor’s minority – at least right now – right faction, Mr Dick’s ambitions are already hindered.

However, one unnamed colleague recently declared there were three certainties in life; “death, taxes and Cameron Dick believing he should lead the Labor Party”.

Quick to dissect an LNP policy with the killer Keating instinct, Mr Dick’s the obvious choice to lead Labor’s attack back to government benches.

Prior to the campaign Labor MPs might have seriously led towards installing him as opposition leader to chip away at the LNP, before moving for the more electable Ms Fentiman.

However, this abortion debacle consuming the LNP might have changed it.

Who better to attack conservative dominance and “boys club” than an energetic female opposition leader?

Annastacia Palaszczuk, with help from colossal political mistakes, destroyed a wildly dominant LNP government.

Labor MPs are so used to government benches and desperate to return, they will become one-eyed backers of the candidate best to get them there.

Recent polling still points to a decisive victory for the LNP, but there’s little anger for Labor on the trail.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles and member for Pumicestone Ali King during a visit to Sandstone Point in Moreton Bay. Picture: Tertius Pickard

Punters caught up in the hype of a visit by Mr Miles this week in Bundaberg, Bulimba, Hervey Bay and Cairns asked for selfies above answers.

His royal-like wave from a balcony at the Sandstone Point Hotel was well received by enthusiastic constituents.

Some were probably just being polite, but many approached him to say what a great job he was doing.

One couple having a coffee at River Cruz in Bundaberg when Mr Miles arrived said crime and drug addiction were the biggest issues facing the community, yet declared they were leaning towards voting for Labor.

In Hervey Bay another woman didn’t know who the premier was, asked what happened to Ms Palaszczuk and then, after meeting him, said she liked the look of Mr Miles.

Abortion has pushed the needle closer to Labor in the first two weeks of the campaign, but it’s still not likely to change the outcome.

It could make the campaign tighter, which would add a third candidate to Labor’s leadership contest – Premier Miles.

He’s slowly recovered ground for Labor from the LNP and has probably made it a closer contest than it would have otherwise been had Ms Palaszczuk remained premier.

Secretary of the United Workers Union (UWU) Gary Bullock. Picture: Dan Peled

Should Labor lose by a hair there is a possibility – especially if Gary Bullock’s United Workers’ Union remains dominant – he might stay on as opposition leader.

There’s an established following on social media and, perhaps other than Hervey Bay, name recognition.

With pre-polling underway from Monday expect fewer big announcements from Mr Miles and Mr Crisafulli.

After four years, they’ve effectively run out of time to convince Queenslanders who’s best to lead.

Then, should the polls be right it’ll be up to Labor MPs and union masters to determine who’s best to lead them.

Originally published as Analysis: Labor’s predicted cataclysmic defeat could trigger internal war