Why Melbourne could avoid a stage 4 lockdown
Stage 4 restrictions which could impose curfews, shop closures and bans on venturing outdoors are a bit like a nuclear bomb — best kept as a deterrent rather than actually being deployed, writes Grant McArthur.
Opinion
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Stage four pandemic restrictions are a bit like a nuclear bomb – best kept as a deterrent rather than actually being deployed.
Obviously, if coronavirus continues to surge across Melbourne and COVID-19 infections begin doubling every few days again, there will be little choice than to push the button and wipe out free life as we have known it, at least for a week or two.
But health authorities and politicians know that even the most understanding population will only tolerate measures such as curfews, shop closures or total bans on venturing outdoors for a very limited period.
And it’s doubtful Melburnians represent the most understanding population at the moment.
They also know it would be a disaster if the harshest rules were introduced and people grew tired and started flouting them before coronavirus stopped spreading.
It would leave them without any further weapons in the arsenal.
Worse, it is feared that if people see numbers still rising under the toughest lockdowns the anger or loss of hope would drive large sections to no longer even follow a return to stage three restrictions, as they do now.
Data gathered from restrictions around the world show populations will only adhere to the rules effectively for about four months, regardless of the carnage they see playing out around them.
This leads authorities to believe that the best use of stage four-type restrictions is not to impose them as the infection numbers are rising, but to implement them the moment they start heading down.
In this way, people can see the benefit of their suffering so they will embrace the measures while turbocharging the pandemic’s retreat so there is less and less chance of another wave.
Nothing resembling official words about stage four restrictions have been uttered by the Andrews Government, yet rumours are sweeping Melbourne each day of imminent curfews, shop closures and weeks of being locked in our homes.
In this way, the Government’s biggest weapon to control the current wave of COVID-19 is hopefully already working.
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