We deserve our freedoms but there is likely to be a heavy price

There’s good news hidden in our Covid numbers but also a warning that freedom may come with a heavy price.

Victorians have been starved of freedom for so long it’s no wonder few of us can stomach the thought of a couple of more weeks under any sort of lockdown.

But, when it comes to reopening the state, we simply cannot have our cake and eat it too.

The hunger to abandon restrictions, to have a properly functioning health system and avoid a surge in serious illness and deaths are just not compatible.

Even at 70 per cent vaccination, and then 80 per cent vaccination, removing all public health measures will push the health system to the brink, perhaps beyond it.

That certainly doesn’t mean we should not be reopening when we reach these hard-fought milestones, nor delaying the roadmap for a moment.

Victorians are edging closer to being able to enjoy a beer at the pub again. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

We all need — and deserve — to get our full lives back.

However, Victorians do need to realise this is going to be a very bumpy road. There is likely to be a heavy price to pay for all the things we have been demanding and working towards.

In the past 15 days the number of Victorians hospitalised with Covid has doubled, as have extreme cases needing ICU.

This means they will go close to doubling again before we reach 70 per cent vaccination.

After entering our sixth lockdown on August 5, it took until September 19 for the outbreak’s death toll to reach 10. It has since doubled every seven days for the past month.

And this has been happening under the toughest and most prolonged lockdown the world has seen.

Acknowledging these realities doesn’t have to be all doom and gloom.

In fact, looking more deeply into Victoria’s rising outbreak paints a very hopeful picture.

Saela, 17, pictured with mum Michelle, was admitted to ICU with Covid. Picture: Ian Currie

Saela spent nearly a month in hospital.

As Victoria’s vaccination rates have increased, the speed at which cases, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are accelerating has inversely decreased.

After the sixth lockdown was introduced, daily case numbers first doubled every four days, then nine, then 14 and now 18 days.

Hospitalisations first doubled after five days, then it was six, nine, 10, 12 and 15 days.

There is further good news. Department of Health projections in early September forecast Victoria’s hospitals may have 800 Covid patients admitted by October 16, including 250 requiring intensive care.

Just three days out from that point there are 675 in hospital and 144 in ICU.

Of course this has all occurred under a lockdown to prevent cases running away so vaccinations could gradually have an impact.

When restrictions ease slightly at 70 per cent vaccination, and particularly when the Covid handbrake is removed at 80 per cent, cases, hospitalisations and ultimately deaths will likely hit a pace that is terrifying to those working in our hospitals and ambulances.

Nurses at the Royal Melbourne Hospital's Covid ICU will pay the price if we do too much too soon. Picture: David Caird

That’s why it is so important we all appreciate the realities of what we are asking for now, rather than pretending they don’t exist.

The relationship between rising levels of vaccination and the slowing of cases and hospitalisation means it will take weeks, potentially months, for any sort of correction to be noticed when strict lockdown is abandoned.

It’s beyond tempting to ask for restrictions to be eased now, even more so to many of the freedoms set aside for 80 per cent are fast-tracked to 70 per cent.

But if people jump the gun, ignore the rules and award themselves too many liberties even a week or two early they could be adding months to the time it takes for that correction to happen. That means hundreds more people who are sick or dead, as well as a prolonged nightmare for our health system.

Instead, everyone would be better served acknowledging the positive signs of what has been achieved so far as an encouragement that persevering will mean we can get through the bumps in the road.

Sticking to the freedoms we are given and getting vaccinated will be the key to success. Picture: Getty Images

After a tough 18 months it’s easy to understand why some people are increasingly forgetting the actual reasons we have endured restrictions are health and human considerations.

It’s just too convenient to pretend lockdowns are based on politics, because that means you can ignore the cost of what you are asking for.

Those preferring to believe that lockdowns, masks and other restrictions are simply political are usually quick to point out that only a few thousand or less Australians are likely to die if we “let it rip” at our current vaccination levels — and they will be the old, vulnerable or non-vaccinated by choice anyway.

But this simplistic view fails to appreciate the wider impact on the health system that will hit almost every family.

For instance, a critically ill Delta patient spends about 16 days in ICU, compared to an average of about three days for non-Covid conditions.

That’s five patients needing surgery, battling cancer or trying to fight off chronic disease who may not get an ICU bed. Nor will they show up as a casualty in the Covid data.

There are positive signs that normal life will return quickly. Picture: Damian Shaw

And that is only at the extreme end of the hospital system. Hundreds more are likely to never make it through crowded emergency departments, nor find a bed or outpatient appointment due to the number of exposed health workers forced to furlough.

The impact on GPs, who are needed to detect and treat conditions before people become sick enough to need hospital, will be multiplied again.

It will be far too simple to then say the health system should have been better prepared to cope with a pandemic as well as normal operations.

Yes, thousands of ventilators can be acquired in weeks or months, but it takes years to train nurses and doctors to use them.

It’s the same with ambulances — they don’t tend to work very well without trained paramedics to treat the patients, nor dispatchers capable of knowing which ones are a priority when so many are.

Victoria’s health system has systemic gaps in terms of the hospital and paramedic workforce that need to be addressed and have done for years, but facing up to the realities of a pandemic is a completely different issue.

Pretending that we can ignore them and still devour our freedoms in the coming weeks is as useless as simply declaring “let them eat cake”.

But if we can all grit our teeth for just a few weeks longer the rewards will be even better — after all, guilt-free cake always tastes sweeter.