Tom Minear: What happens to the major movers if they’re moved on?
Before the bloodletting of the federal election begins, it’s worth considering the potential fallout for the parties and politicians who lose.
Opinion
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For much of the past six weeks, this has felt like the Seinfeld election – a political show about nothing.
Other than Scott Morrison’s super plan for first-home buyers, there has been a decided lack of big ideas. Gaffes and external events dictated days of the campaign, rather than the proactive determinations of the leaders.
Of course, the result does not mean nothing. As Paul Keating said – in a warning to voters, not an encouragement – “when the government changes, the country changes”.
That will be front of mind for all voters. What do we want Australia to be, and which party is best placed to deliver that?
What we don’t think about as much is what happens to the parties and the politicians who lose – but you can be assured that has crossed their minds. So before the bloodletting begins, it’s worth considering the potential fallout.
After nine years in power, a loss would leave the Coalition with some serious soul-searching to do in opposition.
It’s difficult to see Morrison sticking around for that. In a revealing recent interview with the Saturday Herald Sun, he spoke of the toll of the top job on his family and how he did not want to leave feeling bitter. At 54, he has another career in him.
The question of his replacement is complicated by the close race facing Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong. If he hangs on, the Treasurer would go head-to-head with Peter Dutton.
If he loses? It’s hard to see Frydenberg walking away from his dream to be the PM, so perhaps a solution could be engineered to parachute him back into parliament.
The choice of leader will be pivotal to the Liberal Party’s future identity. Dutton would be better prepared to continue Morrison’s effort to expand into traditional Labor territory in the outer suburbs. Frydenberg would be more able to defend Liberal heartland seats under siege from so-called teal independents.
Ironically, while just three members of Tony Abbott’s first cabinet will remain after the election – Morrison, Dutton and Barnaby Joyce – this regeneration has not put many other obvious leadership contenders in the ministry. It will be time for newer MPs to be given a chance.
The direction of the Liberal Party also depends on the state of the Coalition. For instance, it is impossible to imagine them offering a more ambitious climate change plan while Joyce leads the Nationals. Then again, his leadership could also be under threat.
The dynamics in the Nationals party room will be different without George Christensen and Damian Drum, while the potential loss of Nicholls in Victoria would be a damning indictment on Joyce’s brand south of the Barassi Line. Michael McCormack has not ruled out challenging, while David Littleproud may also fancy himself to take the Nationals forward.
The consequences of defeat would be even more dire for Labor.
There are still 12 members of Kevin Rudd’s last cabinet on Anthony Albanese’s frontbench. The Labor leader likes to brag they would be the most experienced incoming Labor government in history. In opposition, many of these MPs would finally have to step back.
Over the past two years, some in Labor have wondered if Albanese would want to remain in charge if he lost, perhaps by arguing the pandemic prevented him having a proper crack. Bill Shorten had two terms, so it’s not impossible, but Labor would need to move on.
The leadership race looks wide open. The tougher call, however, would be the strategy required to win after four terms in opposition. Shorten had too many policies; Albanese may not have enough. And while every government has its use-by date, it would be an unmitigated crisis for Labor if Morrison’s unpopularity was still not enough for them to win.
It’s not just the major parties with everything on the line. Election after election, the Greens make noises about expanding their footprint in the lower house, and they keep falling short.
Leader Adam Bandt has tried something new, placing a stronger focus on Queensland rather than inner-city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney. Labor strategists are impressed with the Greens ground game up north, where they have a chance of winning Griffith.
But the rise of the teal movement is an existential threat to the Greens. No matter how many independent candidates succeed, the structures will be in place for repeat efforts at future elections. They have cannily outflanked the Greens where the minor party hoped to grow, knowing inner-city Liberal voters will more easily switch to small-l teals than far-left Greens.
Is Bandt the man to turn this around? He’s a better chance than some of his more extreme colleagues, although they may want to pursue a different direction entirely.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will almost certainly lose its only MP in Craig Kelly, although that is unlikely to dent the billionaire’s political ambitions, given he seems to have more dollars than sense.
And depending on the Queensland Senate race – also featuring ex-premier Campbell Newman, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and LNP frontbencher Amanda Stoker – Palmer could end up back in Canberra himself.
Saturday isn’t the beginning of the end. It’s the end of the beginning.
Tom Minear is Herald Sun national politics editor
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