Tom Minear: The real risk to AUKUS if Trump returns

The Albanese government is making two key errors on AUKUS, Tom Minear argues, and the Americans are watching. That could spell bad news for Australia if Donald Trump wins.

Almost three years since the AUKUS pact was unveiled, it is in a strangely precarious state.

Strange because Australia’s bipartisan commitment to the $368bn nuclear submarine plan is solid, but precarious because the Albanese government has allowed AUKUS’s increasingly vocal critics to shape the narrative about it.

Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull are among those filling a vacuum that has emerged for two reasons: the government’s failure to adequately explain the rationale for AUKUS, and its failure to adequately demonstrate its commitment with the sort of spending that meets what it calls the most difficult strategic circumstances since World War II.

Former prime minister Paul Keating. Picture: Mick Tsikas-Pool/Getty Images

Anthony Albanese and his ministers dispute this. But successfully doing so requires actions, not words, because here’s the thing: the Americans are watching.

They read the budgets that do not show a meaningful and immediate increase in investment. They hear the rumours about Defence Minister Richard Marles being rolled in his effort to change that. They see the negative headlines sparked by often ill-informed voices.

Abe Denmark, the Pentagon’s point man on AUKUS until recently, was not so explicit in my interview with him. But he was clear-eyed about what he thinks the Albanese government needs to do: explain to ordinary people why AUKUS matters, not just to experts, and spend fast enough to make it happen.

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: David Swift

Mr Denmark is held in high regard in Canberra for his efforts to negotiate a plan that can – and must – establish a nuclear-powered submarine fleet down under. So what he has to say should be a major wake-up call for the government.

Whether they will listen is doubtful. With an election due by May, it is hard to imagine the PM wanting to make AUKUS the issue by giving an honest speech about why it is needed, risking a new fight with China. It is even harder to imagine him spending the money required when voters are obsessed only with the cost of living.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (L) claps as he leaves the stage after speaking alongside former US Representative Tulsi Gabbardd during a town hall meeting in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on August 29, 2024. Picture: KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP

But there is another election he should be thinking about. It’s not just AUKUS supporters in the US who are watching – it is those who despise the idea of giving away their nuclear submarines. And if Donald Trump wins in November, they will try to stop it happening.

As much as the strategic logic of AUKUS should appeal to the former president, the Albanese government cannot run the risk of letting him think it is a bad deal.