The Bendigo native has risen steadily upward and spent almost half her life as a member of Victoria’s parliament

Politics is set to change under Jacinta Allan but the new Premier will be well aware it has been 50 years since Victorians re-elected a government that changed leader midterm.

If experience counts for anything then Jacinta Allan should be set for a long reign as the Premier of Victoria.

Not only does she inherit a thumping parliamentary majority built up under two Dan-slides, no MP has ever arrived at the top job with as much time on the front bench under her belt as the 49th premier.

Almost half of Allan’s 50 years has been spent as a member of Victoria’s parliament.

Since she joined the Cabinet at only 29 years of age after the 2002 Brackslide, the Bendigo native has risen steadily upward.

Allan inherits a thumping parliamentary majority built up under two Dan-slides. Picture: AAP

In eight years under Bracks and Brumby she was variously minister for Industry and Trade, Regional and Rural Development, Skills and Workforce Participation, Skills, Educational Services and Employment, Women’s and Youth Affairs.

In her second stint in government since 2014 she’s had the much more important jobs of Major Projects and various iterations of Transport that has seen her take ultimate responsibility for the Labor’s Big Build.

Unfortunately history is littered with leaders who on paper should have succeeded but who failed when they reached the summit either because they were overwhelmed by circumstances or failed to make the adjustment to the requirements of the top job.

Allan will be well aware too that it has been 50 years since Victorians re-elected a government that had changed premiers in the middle of a term.

Allan joined the Cabinet at only 29 years of age.

The financial circumstances Allan inherits will inevitably draw comparisons with Joan Kirner, the first and last woman to be premier of Victoria. But the differences between the two are actually very different.

By the time Kirner took over from John Cain in 1990 it was accepted the state was in such a crisis that things could not go on as they were.

That was why though the measures were an anathema to much of the Labor movement she was able to make it accept the sale of State Bank, tax hikes and the introduction of poker machines.

Unfortunately for Allan there is no evidence today the Labor movement or the general public understands what is about to hit them.

By 2026-7 the state’s net debt will be at 24.4 per cent of the state’s economy and the cost of servicing it rising – even though taxes are already going up – with the budget predicting it will go from $4.1bn this financial year, or about 4.9 per cent of total revenue, to $5.6bn next.

A number of veteran Labor figures said Allan needed to send a signal that she was determined to change the government’s direction.

“There is one thing she should do immediately which is to dump the Suburban Rail Loop. It’s completely unaffordable,” one former Labor minister said.

“Has she got the courage to do it? I don’t know.”

There are calls for Allan to dump the rail loop. Picture: AAP

Speaking to MPs and party officials who have worked with Allan a consistent picture emerges.

They agreed she is intelligent, hardworking, and something rare in modern politics, brave.

“Jacinta is not a coward, she doesn’t mind getting into the fray,” another former minister said.

A number of colleagues raised two things they had observed about her they warned might spell trouble.

“She can sell a brief, no doubt about it but sometimes you’ve got to reject the advice and I’ve never seen her do that,” one ex-minister said.

A former Labor official said Allan would need more political people around her if she was going to succeed as Premier. Noting that in his experience most of the staff who worked for Allan had public service rather than political background, the official said at times she had been little more than a departmental spokeswoman.

“That’s going to have to change.”

A former minister says Allan ‘doesn’t mind getting into the fray’. Picture Rebecca Michael.

A more serious and consistent criticism of Allan over years has been the way she treats people.

“She’s been very good at managing relationships with those above her, less so with others,” is how one Labor figure politely describes this side of her character.

“She won’t be able to treat people the way she has until now,” another said.

A third questioned this, saying Daniel Andrews’s treatment of his colleagues had hardly been exemplary but this hadn’t been an impediment to successfully running a government.

“The big question is how much people will respect her wishes. People not only respected Dan’s wishes they feared not abiding by them,” this ex-minister said.

“I don’t think that fear applies to her. Not at the moment. People don’t start fearing you until you’ve been in the job and they realise you’re someone to be feared.”

In the immediate aftermath of the departure of a leader as dominant as Daniel Andrews it is to be expected any successor would have to deal with a caucus and ministry that is looking to assert itself, an experience that will be unfamiliar to most of them who have never served under anyone else.

Daniel Andrews’ treatment of his colleagues had hardly been exemplary. Picture: Sarah Matray

“There will outbreaks of democracy all over the place,” one Labor figure joked.

Complicating this for Allan will be the change in the power balance in the ALP which occurred in the past decade.

Although Andrews was, like Allan, a member of the Socialist Left, his power was so great he could when it suited him ignore the majority of his own faction and pick and choose people he liked.

Most observers expect Allan will not be in a position to ignore wishes of SL powerbrokers.

This matters because the SL is now so dominant, it will take a strong leader to stop it from eviscerating what is left of the Labor Right.

A federal SL MP said that while in recent years the factions in the state caucus had been “weak and quiescent” this could be expected to change.

“There’s going to need to be attention paid to managing relationships – or stroking egos,” he said.

He said Allan would need to control the factional greed of his SL colleagues.

“The clear lesson of Victorian Labor politics is he and she who is too greedy ends up with breaking things,” he said.