Susie O’Brien: Tight contest in Kooyong a direct result of PM’s shift to right

The ultraconservatism of the Morrison government – which Frydenberg is a key part of – has thrown moderates like him under the campaign bus.

Human billboards paid $30 an hour to advertise Josh Frydenberg are an apt reflection of the Liberal Party’s current malaise. Sad and dejected, the billboard-wearing troops are a regular sight at many of Kooyong’s shopping strips and intersections.

These paid promoters carry a heavy burden on their back – the weight of Liberal electoral expectations.

The zeal of the teal army stands in stark comparison. Rather than being paid to advertise someone they’ve never met, they wear their turquoise T-shirts to show their support for political newbie Monique Ryan – Frydenberg’s opponent. They think of her as a friend.

Ryan’s campaign is on a high – some regulars even have matching teal umbrellas and tote bags.

It must be galling for hardworking Liberals such as Frydenberg in Kooyong and Tim Wilson in nearby Goldstein.

They face electoral annihilation, not because of the strength of their opponents, but because they are high-profile members of the Morrison government.

There are sound reasons why Frydenberg’s latest round of billboards and posters do not boast Liberal Party insignia or logos.

“Keep Josh”, they say, in a last-ditch effort to endear him to voters.

The polls show it’s not working.

Polling indicates Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is in the fight of his life for his Kooyong seat. Picture: Ian Currie

The ultraconservatism of the Morrison government – which Frydenberg is a key part of – has thrown moderates like him under the campaign bus. A lack of action on climate change has emerged as the leading problem, ousting the economy as the headline Liberal issue.

Other problems include slow progress on a federal integrity commission and lunatic-fringe views on gender issues such as religious discrimination in schools.

It’s no accident that Ryan is campaigning for “climate action, a strong economy and integrity in politics”.

Former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel is running as an independent in Goldstein, hoping to unseat Wilson. Daniel, also bankrolled by the Climate 200 group, lists climate, integrity and gender equality as her three priorities.

Both know the government’s failure to act on climate change plays well in electorates where cost-of-living pressures aren’t biting as hard as elsewhere.

Ryan says she will “vote with her values” but it’s still unclear as to what these values are beyond the headline catchphrases. The same is true for Daniel, who says she is economically conservative but socially progressive.

Both are on a collision course with Liberal candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves, whose hand-selection says much about the Prime Minister’s personal politics.

Morrison has refused to dump Deves despite her objectionable and discriminatory views on transgender people.

Independent candidate Monique Ryan has won over many voters in Kooyong.

Morrison has also signalled that he will revisit the Religious Discrimination Bill which seeks to give religious organisations more freedom to hire and fire staff in line with their faith-based views.

Enabling hate and bigotry in the name of religious freedom or women’s sport are not issues likely to endear more progressive Liberal voters in seats like Kooyong and Goldstein. These are not headline issues, but they say much about the government’s priorities and its willingness to drag the party to the far right despite its effect on longstanding city Liberal seats.

Such is the antipathy between the two groupings that preference flows from the teal independents are unlikely to benefit the Liberals.

In fact, women voters have indicated they don’t appreciate the way the serious, intelligent mid-career women have been maligned by Liberal heavyweights as former PM John Howard, who called them “groupies”.

The teal army is also using comments from ex-Libs such as former PM Malcolm Turnbull and ex-minister Ian Macphee, a long-serving member for Goldstein, who says the party “can’t reform itself”.

The polls suggest Labor is set for a strong victory on Saturday night, with the Liberals’ move to the right not supported in either the city or the bush. Morrison took a gamble and lost, and looks set to plunge the party into years of opposition.

The loss of seats like Kooyong – which is as blue-chip as they come – will also see the party’s best choice for opposition leader plunged into the electoral abyss.

Frydenberg and Wilson stand to lose to climate action idealists and their boss should take most of the blame. Playing the ukulele and knocking up curries for a camera in twee stunts only compounds the nationwide mistrust for him.

Forget Albo. He’s not going to win the election; Morrison will lose it.

Morrison is the best vote-winner that Labor – and the T-shirt-wearing teal army – could ever have.