Shannon Deery: Why Libs may not be saved by simple leadership change
For the Liberal Party to stand a chance in November they can’t simply dismiss the polls as not representing reality. They also have to stop simply blaming the leader.
Opinion
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Meat pies, Holden cars, VBs. These are a few of Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s favourite Victorian things according to a new ad that’s gone to air this week.
Indeed, they are great things.
But as the Liberals flick the switch to election mode, one wonders how many, if any, PR and marketing people were involved in concluding that they would equal electoral success.
Because few would associate any of those things with being Victorian in 2022.
There’s clearly an effort to appeal to Victoria’s working class, and to secure some votes from voters in heartland suburbs that are turning against Labor.
But pies, cars and beer?
Take Holden cars, for example. We haven’t had one roll of the production line in this country since 2017 – during Guy’s last shot at an election.
And it’s left some Liberals questioning what, if anything, has changed since.
Or is the party stuck in the past?
For many the throwaway line about pies, cars and beers at the end of the ad is emblematic of a much broader problem within the party.
When he wrestled the leadership from Michael O’Brien in September, Guy promised more cut-through.
O’Brien, his detractors said, might have been a nice guy, but he wasn’t resonating.
Guy promised to do more with a family man image and more able statesmanship.
He’d be less aggressive and more positive than when he was last in the top job, too.
He’s certainly trying. Guy 2.0 is placid beyond recognition, readily on display at any press conference or sitting of parliament.
“Victoria needs a dose of positivity, we need a dose of energy. It’s time to find out inner pride,” he says in the new ad.
Humility is key if you want to lead the state, he says.
“You need to have a good grounding as to why you’re there. You’re not there for yourself, you’re there for our state.”
Small business, job security, mental health, no more lockdowns, hospital waiting lists.
These are things he has been focused on.
And, if you speak to mums and dads in the street, they seem to know who he is and what he’s selling. Which is a start.
But polling, for all its worth, tells another story. And obsessive poll watchers inside the party, and there are many, are getting nervous.
Because current polling suggests the party has lost huge ground in the last few months.
In June, polling put Labor ahead over the Coalition 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
By November, Daniel Andrews had pushed out his lead 58-42. He also remains far and away the preferred Premier.
Last week, Labor’s primary vote increased to 41 per cent, just two points short of the 42.9 per cent that saw them trounce the Libs in 2018.
If replicated in November it could see a “WA-style” wipe-out of the Victorian Libs.
If that were to happen, it would wipe the party out for not just a term, but a decade.
And it would almost certainly end Guy’s political career.
Some are now asking is the party better off following a change in leader?
“Matthew’s like the excitable dog that chased the car down the street. He got a little ahead of himself and now he’s looking like roadkill,” one source said.
“We were all told this time would be different, but so far nothing has changed. He needs to get some new blood into his office and start to show some energy as there won’t be a third chance.
“The next Liberal Premier of Victoria is currently campaigning in Kew or Hawthorn, let’s hope Matthew can do enough to at least get them into parliament.”
Others have dismissed last week’s poll as nonsense, and say internal Liberal polling is wildly more optimistic.
To simply look at the polls and blame the leadership change is too simplistic.
Things may have been worse under O’Brien. They may have been better.
There are too many other variables at play, not least of which is the ongoing pandemic that, in refusing to let up, plays into the government’s playbook of the past two years.
For the Libs to stand a chance in November they can’t simply dismiss the polls as not representing reality. They also have to stop simply blaming the leader.
The effect of a swath of ugly preselections, federal Libs increasingly being on the nose, and Tim Smith’s car crash exit out of politics have all stifled any momentum.
Of course ultimately when the election campaign proper rolls around, Guy will have to step in as the alternative Premier.
And there are concerns there is no one shaping up to backfill his favourite role as head kicker.
Many will still be sizing Matthew Guy up.
But given he’s had a crack once before, many others would have made their mind up already.
Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor
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