Shannon Deery: Where to now for Michael O’Brien and Victorian Liberals?

As next year’s state election fast approaches, many Liberal MPs are already preparing for more years in the political wilderness.

Victoria: the one-party state. Or so it seems.

Far from providing a clear distinction between the two major parties, Victoria’s state opposition continues to muddy the waters.

Instead of providing a viable alternative to the incumbents, voters now have a choice between the government and the who.

And with next year’s state election fast approaching, many Liberal MPs are already preparing for another four years in the political wilderness.

It’s as though the crushing 2018 election thumping was not enough to refocus an already struggling party.

What should have forced a significant shift in attitude failed to jolt the party into line.

Not that a party that’s won just one election in more than 20 years should be scratching around for reasons to refocus.

Opposition leader Michael O'Brien is in a precarious position. Picture: Wayne Taylor

Yet internal bickering and factional infighting continues.

In the lead-up to the 2018 election, then party treasurer David Mond launched a stinging attack on president Michael Kroger that threatened to distract from the election.

Now the party attacks are being lobbed in the direction of leader Michael O’Brien, whose focus should be on holding the government to account and putting up a fight at the polls
in 2022.

When he takes his seat in parliament this week, the government’s bid to extend Victoria’s state of emergency should be front and centre in his mind.

The government is negotiating with crossbenchers to push the legislation through, but is facing significantly more opposition than when it last extended the emergency provisions.

Particularly after a group of Melbourne barristers circulated draft legislation that would allow the chief health officer to make specific orders in the event of another COVID outbreak without extending the state of emergency and giving blanket powers to police in the process.

Instead his biggest challenge is trying to unite a fractured party and fight for his job amid ongoing murmurings of a leadership challenge.

The opposition has failed to land a blow on Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: Daniel Pockett

For months he has faced internal anger over his performances amid criticism he failed to land a blow on Premier Daniel Andrews over the government’s COVID-19 response.

While private backroom disquiet with political leaders is usually masked by public shows of support, such displays of affection are not forthcoming for O’Brien.

Rarely do any of his MPs speak out in defence of their leader.

Amid several reports over recent months that O’Brien had to lift his game or face a challenge, nobody has rushed to his defence.

Instead, he has been forced to back himself in as the man for the job, talking up his determination to lead the party to next year’s election.

“What drives me is doing better for this state. That’s what motivates me,” he said last week.

“I was elected unopposed by my party after the last election because they know that as a former treasurer, nobody is better placed to lead Victoria’s economic recovery,” he said.

“I am absolutely determined to do it, not for me, not for the Liberal Party, but for all Victorians.

“The Victorian Liberal Party wants to see Victoria do better, I want to see Victoria do better, and that’s what I’m determined to offer.

“Victorians need a better alternative.”

Former opposition leader Matthew Guy. Picture: Aaron Francis

Liberal sources say any plans to oust O’Brien have been shelved, at least for now.

Those MPs who have been quietly counting the numbers over recent months fell well short of being able to mount a challenge.

At least one had been offering their services.

And another had seriously considered stepping up as a potential replacement before changing speed and instead offering full support to O’Brien.

Matthew Guy, who stood down as leader after the 2018 loss, is understood to be unwilling to take the helm again, despite being encouraged by some to do so.

Most still don’t think O’Brien’s guaranteed to lead the party to the next election, but say he’s the most viable option right now.

Concern has instead turned to the way the opposition is being managed behind the scenes.
And worry that many of the party’s lieutenants have gone missing in action, with O’Brien let down by the failure of key figures to pull their weight.

Worry, too, has grown in the branches, where palpable concern about the state of the party looks set to ignite an explosive period of preselections.

Combined with an electoral boundary redistribution that’s expected to worsen the woes of the Liberal Party, it’s not just O’Brien fighting for survival.

After the Andrews government’s toughest year since coming to power, it seems the Liberals have missed their opportunity to turn their fortunes.

And it has left many wondering, where to from here?

— Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor

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