Shannon Deery: Victorian Libs stuck on a cycle of rinse, loss, repeat

With 18 months until the state election, time is fast running out for the Victorian Liberal Party to get its house in order but it continues to do the same thing over and over again while expecting different results.

Is the Victorian Liberal Party certifiably insane?

It’s becoming harder to draw any other conclusion about a party that continues to do the same thing over and over again while expecting different results.

Two years ago former Victorian president Greg Mirabella lashed the party for a major brand problem he said had made it unelectable.

It came on the back of the shock 2023 Aston by-election defeat, the 2022 state election drubbing, and the federal election smashing earlier that same year.

“In the last 12 months the people of Victoria have made it perfectly clear that we are not electable,” he said at the time. “I think the major problem remains: us. Brand Liberal.”

“We must better understand the nature of how the electorate perceives Brand-Liberal, because we need to urgently begin the process of repositioning. This will not be a quick process, and we need to be doing it in conjunction with the federal executive, but we must start.”

Ask yourself: just what has changed since?

What lessons have been learned from more than a decade of state election losses?

Two years ago former Victorian president Greg Mirabella lashed the party for a major brand problem he said had made it unelectable. Picture: Martin Ollman

Comprehensive reviews have been completed after most losses, but are the recommendations ever implemented or acted on?

Absolutely not.

So much so that Mirabella refused to run a review into the 2022 election because he was fed up with so many of the same lessons being uncovered, and then ignored.

This is a party gripped in a vicious cycle of failure that has many internal critics now convinced it can’t win next year’s state election.

That would mean handing Labor a historic fourth term despite more than a decade in power that has led to crises of the economy, law and order, health and roads.

After its second successive state election loss in 2018 a review blamed internal warfare, financial difficulties, dodgy polling, and a failure to sell a clear message to voters.

Fast forward five years.

Still there is internal warfare: look no further than the Deeming versus Pesutto stoush that has plagued the party for two years longer than it should have.

It is symbolic of a wider divide between the moderates and conservatives in the party who simply refuse to even attempt in any way to get along.

The Deeming versus Pesutto stoush that has plagued the party for two years longer than it should have. Picture: Facebook

Still there are financial difficulties: fundraising efforts have improved but the ability to properly bankroll campaigns in the seats required to win the next election remains a stretch.

Still there is dodgy polling: in 2022 internal polling showed the Libs were set to form government and last week party polling indicated Peter Dutton was closer to winning than thought.

Still there is a failure to sell a clear message to voters: in 2022 and last weekend the party left it far too late to articulate and communicate a simple message.

In spite of this, senior Liberal Party operatives have had no intention of releasing any significant policy positions until now.

I spoke with a senior Liberal MP in late 2023 who said no policy of any substance would be released until at least 2025.

There is a warped view among many Liberals that the electorate doesn’t pay attention.

Maybe, but surely drumming home the same consistent, simple messages over a number of years will yield better results than rushing through half-cooked ideas a month before an election.

Opposition Leader Brad Battin unveiled his first major policy on Monday, almost five months after taking over the leadership, with its own catchy slogan. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

It worked for Tony Abbott federally, repeating ad nauseam mantras about axing the tax and stopping the boats to embed political messaging into the national psyche.

Victorian Opposition leader Brad Battin unveiled his first major policy on Monday, almost five months after taking over the leadership, with its own catchy slogan.

The break bail, face jail policy risked pigeonholing him as a one issue crime-and-punishment politician.

But it was a concerted effort to start clearly communicating policy, even if it was on an issue Labor has largely neutralised given its recent own tough bail laws.

Ten points for effort, half that for execution.

For Liberals that say things can only get better, look to the UK and the utter demise of the Conservative Party there.

With 18 months until the state election time, is fast running out for the Liberal Party to get its house into order. It will mean addressing party structure, candidate selection, the quality of current state MPs, and ensuring the effectiveness of the leader’s office and party headquarters. It will also have to reckon with the diminution of the moderates following the implosion of John Pesutto’s leadership – which had the party on a positive polling trajectory.

Then address pressing issues with actionable policies and connect authentically with voters in demographics it has traditionally struggled to engage.

Lastly, they need to overcome the psychological hurdle that years of losing has inflicted.

And in the time it has to do all that, Jacinta Allan’s Labor has to do just two things: stabilise leadership rumblings and crank its proven election winning machine into gear.

Politics is all about momentum, and unless the Victorian Liberal Party can get some fast, it will be looking to 2030 for its next shot on the treasury benches.

Shannon Deery is State Politics Editor