Shannon Deery: Two events fuel speculation on Dan Andrews’ future as Premier

Two events have sparked speculation on whether Daniel Andrews will stick around for a full third term.

Will Daniel Andrews hang around for his full third term as Premier?

Looking at the photo of his new ministry taken at Government House on Monday, you’d be forgiven for thinking no.

Front and centre of the picture is Jacinta Allan, and if you knew no better you’d think she was in charge.

Too much can be read into these things, but we are used to a government that has made an art form of choreographed media output. Nothing is done by accident; nothing is left to chance.

It’s been only a week since his resounding election win and already there is talk inside government and Labor circles about just how long Andrews will stay.

Some are tipping as little as 12 months.

Others suspect his 10-year anniversary as Premier, due in December 2024, would be the perfect time for a transition.

By then Andrews would have become just the third premier to notch up a rare decade in Victoria’s top job.

Will Dan Andrews hang around for his full third term as Premier?

That would also leave his successor a clear two-year run into the 2026 election.

Andrews has insisted he plans to serve a full term.

But two events last week sparked talk about how soon we might see a change.

The first was an invitation to his deputy, Allan, to his first post-election press conferences last Sunday. The move raised eyebrows given it gave someone else the opportunity to share in Andrews’ victory lap.

It’s no secret that Allan is Andrews’ preferred successor.

But more than ever before, over the past week it has appeared as though Victoria has two premiers in a unique double act, the first a heavyweight veteran on his way to becoming the second-longest-serving premier in Victorian history, and the second a premier in waiting, and now seemingly in training.

Since that first post-election appearance, Allan has been central to the government’s daily appearances. Insiders say it is orchestrated to send a message.

Allan appeared alone on Monday and Wednesday spruiking signature government projects that fall in her wheelhouse as the Minister for Transport and Infrastructure.

She was with the Premier again on Thursday showing off work on the Metro Tunnel, which is on track to open a year ahead of schedule in 2025. Some say Andrews might hang on to be able to cut the ribbon on the project.

Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan has been front and centre of the government’s daily appearances. Picture: David Crosling

The pair appeared together again on Friday as they marched through the halls of parliament towards their first caucus meeting.

The dramatic factional shift that took many by surprise in the hours before that meeting is what really got people talking about a transition of power.

The factional carve-ups of Labor are usually of limited interest to ordinary punters, but the realignment of seven of the party’s formerly Right-aligned MPs to the Premier’s Socialist Left faction is significant.

It boosted Andrews’ grip on power, cemented the Socialist Left as the dominant faction within government, and killed any prospect of a challenger to Allan.

Because if and when Andrews does decide to leave, the caucus will decide the new leader.

Ben Carroll, from the ALP’s right, has increasingly been talked about as a potential challenger to Allan.

But the realignment of the seven MPs to the Socialist Left all but ends that possibility.

Talk of Andrews’ departure inevitably leads to questions about what he would do next.

Having exerted such power and influence for so long, Andrews may find it hard to decide what to do next.

Those who have worked with him say he’s unlikely to feel fulfilled sitting on the board of some big corporation earning big money. He’s more about legacy.

Ben Carroll, pictured with Andrews and Allan, could also be a chance for the leadership. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Andrews himself has said he doesn’t care about his legacy – just about working hard and doing what matters.

But it’s only inevitable that the start of his third term as Premier brings with it talk of the legacy.

If he completes the full term he’ll become the second-longest-serving Victorian premier in history.

In February he’ll mark 3000 days in the job, and be immortalised with a statue.

Much has been made of the possibility of Andrews switching to federal politics.

But to what end?

Already he has shown that he can influence the national debate from right here in Victoria.

On progressive politics, public ownership and green issues, he is already doing it.

He has passed reforms on issues including assisted dying, safe access zones for women’s health services, and medicinal cannabis.

The historic deal with Traditional Owners to begin treaty negotiations is nation leading.

Labor’s decade-long plan to revive the State Electricity Commission will force other governments to watch with interest.

Victoria was the first state to legislate targets with the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

In March, the government announced plans to accelerate the rollout of offshore wind energy – another nation-leading policy.

And when Netball Australia needed to find $15m in sponsorship money, Andrews stepped in to fund the national team’s shortfall.

If Andrews is on the way out, where to next is anyone’s guess.