Shannon Deery: Shattered Victorian Liberals should be asking themselves hard questions

The Liberals have lost the conservative vote — the broad church has splintered, and votes are spraying all over the place. Brad Battin will be wondering what he can do to turn that around in Victoria.

Victorian Liberals will be asking themselves a simple question today: where to from here?

The party suffered a significant statewide swing against it and lost seats.

Remember, earlier this year the Peter Dutton’s Liberals were leading the polls.

Put aside a diabolical campaign, inability to articulate clear policy positions and a delay in releasing a vision for Australia.

There is a bigger problem at play: the Liberal Party has lost the conservative vote.

The broad church has splintered, and votes are spraying all over the place.

Conservative voters are moving away to harder-Right minor parties.

At the opposite end of the spectrum disaffected Labor voters are also steering clear of the Liberal Party.

We saw it at the 2022 state election, and more recently at February’s Werribee by-election.

A double digit swing against Labor resulted in a single digit swing for the Liberal Party, exposing a huge divide it must correct if it stands a chance of governing here again.

The federal election result makes grim reading for Brad Battin and his Victorian Liberals. Picture: Valeriu Campan

It is a trend that has become entrenched in the modern political paradigm.

And it presents an existential threat for the party.

So Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin will be wondering what he can do to turn that around with just 18 months until next year’s state election.

If it can neither win back or hold onto heartland seats, how will Battin win the 16 seats he needs next year to form government.

It will take clear, articulated policies, and time to sell them.

It will take a charismatic leader.

And it will take the party working outside its comfort zone to win back both traditional Liberal voters and disaffected Labor voters.

Jacinta Allan might be unpopular, but disaffected Labor voters haven’t been turning to the Liberals. Picture: Supplied

In Battin’s favour is the fact that Jacinta Allan’s popularity is at record lows, while her government is trailing in the polls.

But even in spite of that, latest polling showed the Liberals’ primary vote down, too.

The national swing against the Coalition is particularly good news For Jacinta Allan.

It will be hard for internal critics plotting a leadership coup to move on her now, given the federal result.

Which means Labor should stabilise, settle and begin to crank up its election winning machine.

At the same time, spooked Victorian Liberals will have to resist the urge to begin tearing themselves apart amid fears of a fourth electoral battering here in Victoria.