Shannon Deery: Rail, Tram and Bus Union mess shows extent of Jacinta Allan’s woes

Jacinta Allan may have inherited a basketcase from Daniel Andrews, but as her first anniversary in the top job approaches she won’t be pleased with the way things are trending.

At a meeting of the Rail, Tram and Bus Union last week, there was much talk of voting Labor out at the next election.

To put that into context, the RTBU is an amalgamation of four of our oldest unions, which were central to the formation of the Australian Labor Party.

Today the union boasts 35,000 members, and is affiliated with the ACTU and the ALP. Turning its back on Labor, and the Allan government, is no small deal.

Now, we’re still a little over two years away from the next election and lots could happen in that time. But the RTBU edict – while informal still and not an explicit union policy – indicates just how badly things are going for Jacinta Allan’s Labor right now.

Latest polling shows that voters are abandoning the government amid concerns over health, the economy and the controversial Suburban Rail Loop.

Primary support for Victorian Labor has dropped to just 31 per cent while John Pesutto’s opposition has surged to 40 per cent, almost its highest point in three years. And though it can bank on clawing back a significant number of votes via Greens preferences, Labor and the Coalition are tied 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.

Senior party operatives have reported “fireworks” at ALP branch meetings in recent weeks, too. In particular the government’s handling of the CFMEU fiasco has prompted complaints about hypocritical double standards.

Polling has shown primary support for Victorian Labor has plummeted. Picture: Diego Fedele

After allegations became public that underworld figures and senior bikies had infiltrated the CFMEU and the government’s feted Big Build, Allan ordered an independent review of the construction sector.

The ALP said it would refuse donations from the CFMEU’s construction division, and its branches across the country were placed into administration. Despite being completely exposed by the scandal as a longtime champion of, and minister responsible for, Victoria’s Big Build, Allan had to take firm action.

But rank and file members wonder, would the same crackdown have applied to a private corporation caught flouting the law?

You could argue it would depend on the corporation, but you could also mount a strong case that it would not have. Take casino operator Crown.

In 2021, the Andrews government allowed Crown to keep its gaming license despite a Victorian royal commission finding it guilty of “disgraceful” conduct. A 652-page report described some of Crown’s conduct as “so callous that it is hard to imagine it could be engaged in by such a well-known corporation”.

The royal commission found Crown unsuitable to operate the casino, but stopped short of cancelling its licence, implementing a special manager to oversee operations. Daniel Andrews, as premier, said he would terminate the licence if the special manager found Crown unfit to hold one.

Talk about being given a chance.

Allan with her predecessor Daniel Andrews on the site of the Suburban Rail Loop in Clayton. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Still, Allan had little choice but to take firm action on the CFMEU, and as it is she has been heavily criticised for dragging her feet to do it.

Where she will feel the most pain over the next two years is her decision to push ahead with the SRL. She is now inextricably – and to some in her own cabinet inexplicably – wedded to the project in a way that has made it a leadership defining issue.

She has repeatedly recommitted to the project, and promised to deliver it on time and budget.

Ratings agencies have warned not to push on without further federal funding (which is not forthcoming), and also cast doubt about the chances of the project keeping to its $34.5bn estimate.

Some of Allan’s ministerial colleagues vehemently oppose the project, and pollsters say voters (including those who will benefit from the SRL) are largely indifferent.

The problem for Allan is that as the project’s champion-in-chief, she will cop the blame every time its billions in funding affects a key service.

Lawyers in recent weeks have been re-examining SRL contracts.

And sources say they believe the government would not be significantly out of pocket if it chose to cancel or significantly delay it. But it has become increasingly clear that the only way that happens is under a different leader.

That is why it has emerged as the defining issue for Allan. And it will be used against her at every opportunity.

Victorian police are planning industrial action in their fight for an $840m pay rise over the next four years. The cost of the SRL’s first stage could fund that rise 41 times.

Health budgets are being rolled out to hospitals, but the government is refusing to commit to continuing top-up funding of $1.5bn over the forward estimates. The cost of the SRL’s first stage could give hospitals an extra $1.5bn for two decades.

As she nears her first anniversary in the top job, Allan won’t be pleased with the way things are trending.

She may have inherited hell in a handbasket, but halfway through the government’s third term the polls are down and rather than being in a position to present a compelling case for re-election, the Premier is still battling for a positive portrayal of herself and her party.