Shannon Deery: Opposition leader John Pesutto may finally be offering alternative to Allan Government

Two recent announcements — on youth crime and Victoria’s Treaty process — could be the first signs that John Pesutto is finally offering an alternative to the Allan government.

Bob Dylan famously warned that you’d better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.

Has Opposition Leader John Pesutto heeded that advice, thrown off his leadership floaties and taken a dive into the deep end?

A month into his second year as leader, Pesutto’s opposition suddenly appears to be offering an alternative to the Allan Labor government.

Now, don’t get ahead of yourselves, no one is saying the alternative is better, or even electorally appealing, yet.

But for the first time since Pesutto took the reins, Victorians are being offered something quite different to the status quo.

Over the weekend Pesutto’s coalition made two major announcements.

The first, that it had put internal differences aside and agreed to oppose efforts to raise the age of criminal responsibility.

The second, that it would no longer support a treaty process in Victoria.

Both are incredibly significant public positions that will spark uncomfortable debate for the government as it pursues its agenda.

The government has committed to raising the age a child can be arrested, charged or jailed from 10 to 12 by the end of this year.

John Pesutto may have finally shed his leadership floaties. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

The age will be raised again to 14 by 2027 with the exception of those accused of some crimes, including homicides.

Such radical reforms would have been hard enough, given the job of balancing the interests of community safety against the interests of young offenders. It is internationally accepted that locking kids up is in many cases futile, and also increases the risk of recidivism.

Victoria’s current regime is at odds with expert medical advice, and lags behind international standards.

But amid a surge in youth offending and a spate of disturbingly brazen and violent attacks in recent weeks, the appetite for radical change will wane.

Arguing against a treaty should be an easy sell for the opposition.

It certainly speaks to the opposition’s base, and could attract votes from those who see the treaty as a vehicle of division over unity.

Leave to one side for a moment the fact that while the policy will be popular in the regions, in the city electorates Pesutto has to retain – including his own – it may not be. And the fact that polling shows the issue is not in the top 100 for most Victorians.

Alongside promises to repeal Labor’s gas ban and scrap the private school payroll tax, all of a sudden Pesutto appears to be offering an alternative.

But it’s not all good news.

In politics, delay can be deadly, and the opposition has been dragged kicking and screaming to most of the above policy positions.

Pesutto risks creating a narrative that he’s a follower, not a leader. Picture: Getty

It’s been almost a year since Daniel Andrews first announced he would raise the age of criminal responsibility. The opposition announced its position on Saturday.

The Victorian government committed to discussing treaties with Aboriginal Victorians in early 2016, with the first legislation passed in 2018.

The opposition quietly announced its position on Sunday evening. It came amid mounting internal pressure following the failed Voice referendum.

Many wanted Pesutto to come out strong post-referendum. He didn’t.

Promises to repeal the gas ban and schools tax each came a week or more after government announcements.

It all risks creating a narrative that Pesutto is a follower, not a leader.

Another problem for Pesutto is growing angst within his team about the way in which announcements are made.

Liberal insiders say some backbenchers were blindsided by the treaty announcement, despite the shadow cabinet agreeing to the position last year.

They have also been critical of a failure to consult with local Indigenous groups ahead of the announcement.

For a guy campaigning on more transparent government, there are concerns he is not practising what he preaches.

Despite what any Liberal MP says publicly, leadership speculation hit fever pitch internally over the summer break.

That is not to suggest Pesutto is in imminent danger, but he has most certainly been put on notice.

Which could explain the rush on firm public policy positions, which could buy him some time.

It’s vital Pesutto offers differentiated positions, but are those he’s offering up salient ones?

They should appease some of the Liberal Party base, and could pique the interests of some outside the fold.

It could also appease some in the party who have become frustrated with a lack of vision and stubborn refusal to develop and announce policy.

Insiders say that’s not really even on the cards for this year.

So while recent events might suggest a shift in tactics, it’s probably far too soon to figure out whether the times really are a changin’.