Shannon Deery: Matthew Guy’s tough stance on Tim Smith has impressed many

Despite pressure from senior federal Liberals, this move by Matthew Guy may have shown he has what it takes to be premier.

Tim Smith’s exit from politics is a big win for Opposition leader Matthew Guy.

While he loses a good mate from parliament, and his most loyal attack dog, he’s won the approval of many Liberals who remained unconvinced he was the right man for the top job.

After leading the opposition to an election thrashing in 2018, many felt it would be a mistake to give Guy a second run before he successfully toppled Michael O’Brien for the leadership in September.

One of the conditions for securing the support of his doubters ahead of the spill was that he distance himself from Smith.

“They wanted to know Matthew was not tied to the hip of Tim, that Tim was not running the show,” a senior Liberal said.

But they also wanted assurances that Guy 2.0 was a vastly improved version of the 2018 version.

That Guy possessed the statesmanlike qualities needed to lead a state left many wondering.

But his tough stance in the fallout of Smith’s drink-drive controversy, in which he called for Smith to bow out of politics, has impressed many.

Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy. Picture: Sarah Matray

Despite pressure from senior federal Liberals to give him a second chance, Guy refused to back down on his promise that Smith would never feature in a government he led.

Even after Smith cast doubt over the claim, and suggested he’d fight on if he had the support of members, Guy wasn’t swayed.

Ultimately, of course, Smith didn’t have the support of his local branch members. Indeed, the silence of those coming out to support Smith was deafening.

There were less than a handful of local branch members who urged a second chance, but no community groups or school leaders jumped to his defence, nor did colleagues publicly lament the loss of a notoriously hard worker.

On the contrary, MPs were demanding he quit, with some making their views clear to him in no uncertain terms.

“He never endeared himself to the community,” one Liberal said.

“The only people on the record as supporting him are the people who helped push him into parliament.

“There is literally no one talking up his attributes.”

Tim Smith speaks to the media after his drunken crash. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Smith had become a liability for the party’s election chances, and even former strong supporters including Jeff Kennett weren’t jumping to his defence.

Expectations were high that Guy would seize the moment and “become electable”, resisting the temptation to keep his schoolyard pal close.

In the immediate fallout of Smith’s crash, there were fears that temptation would be too hard to resist.

Guy, who took almost three days to cut Smith loose, was accused of dragging his feet.

Internally, comparisons were being made between Guy and Daniel Andrews, with Liberals pointing out that the Premier wouldn’t have had time to blink before politically assassinating a colleague who threatened his standing.

But after taking the time to sit and talk with Smith, Guy couldn’t have been any stronger in his condemnation of him and calls for him to call it quits.

“I made it clear that I didn’t want him to nominate at the next election and that I didn’t believe he should nominate for the seat of Kew,” Guy said after the meeting.

“Tim has and will reflect on my advice to him, he will then make a statement in his own time, I hope sooner rather than later.

Tim Smith with Matthew Guy and Josh Frydenberg.

“He is a friend of mine, not just a colleague … but I’m sorry, this is the right decision, the right way to go for the sake of the people of Victoria and that’s more important.”

When Smith cast doubt over the comments, Guy doubled down. It really left Smith no choice.

It meant the best outcome for Smith was to hope for the downfall of Guy, hope a new leader likes him, and hope that he got a shot at returning to a senior role

Even had he have been able to sure up the support of his local constituency, staying on would have been toxic for the party.

As one MP said: “How can Guy present as a leader if disgraced drunk-driving backbenchers are defying him?”

Guy’s stance has made him, perhaps, the most powerful Liberal in Victoria. Never in his career has Guy been in such a strong position.

He now has the clear air he needs to fight an election campaign, and has shown his colleagues he has what it takes to make the tough calls.

And perhaps, for the first time, he’s shown he has what it takes to be a Victorian premier.

— Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor