Shannon Deery: Jury still out on new Premier Jacinta Allan’s political judgment

As a minister, no one questioned Jacinta Allan’s judgment or ability to communicate a message but her first weeks in the top job have some worried she’s morphing from political powerhouse to fence-sitter.

Political judgment is king in politics. Strong leadership requires sound political judgment, without which leaders are vulnerable to attack.

Since moving to expel Moira Deeming from the Liberal Party’s parliamentary team in March, judgment doubts have plagued Opposition Leader John Pesutto.

Similarly, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing questions about his judgment in his handling of the failed Voice referendum.

As she enters her third week in the top job, the judgment of new Premier Jacinta Allan is already under question by some inside her government.

Make no mistake, Allan is a formidable political operative. In a 25-year parliamentary career she has shown ruthless political instincts. One could hardly rise to the top job without them.

Equally, it would be hard to chart a successful term as leader with faulty political judgment.

This early criticism might be unfair given that Allan is still finding her feet in the role.

Criticism to date centres around an emerging theme that Allan is overly cautious.

Is she morphing from political powerhouse to political fence-sitter?

In her first interview after becoming Premier, Allan tied herself in knots when asked who she was backing to win the AFL Grand Final.

In that same interview, she failed to denounce the actions of vandal climate protesters, skirting around that issue, too. Instead of knocking it on the head she waffled about the right to protest and her need to get a briefing.

Early criticism of Allan centres around an emerging theme that she is overly cautious. Picture: David Crosling

Call it teething issues on day one. But her answer when asked last week whether she considered the brutal Hamas attacks on Israel to be terrorism really did raise eyebrows.

Three days after Hamas had launched its surprise guerrilla attacks, Allan said it was not up to her to say what was terrorism, sparking a backlash from Jewish leaders.

Several hours later she issued a statement condemning the attacks.

It was a mistake that may not be easily forgotten by Victoria’s Jewish community.

More importantly, it showed an extraordinary lack of political judgment not to appreciate that dodging the question would open her up to attack.

These moments have provided insights into Allan as Premier. And it’s, so far, vastly different to Allan as a minister, when no one ever questioned her judgment or ability to communicate a message.

“In the football parlance they call it the first touch,” one senior insider said, “how the professionals respond instantly to the ball to shut things down.

“Premiers have to respond to dozens of issues every day and must be able to deftly handle them and not open new fronts.”

Daniel Andrews never shied away from upsetting anyone: colleagues, stakeholders, sections of the electorate.

But he had an acute ability to scope the political landscape, assess the electoral impact, and then back himself in.

If it meant people didn’t agree with him, he’d proceed anyway.

Daniel Andrews never feared people hating him. Picture: David Geraghty

“You can’t be scared off from reform by … chasing 100 per cent agreement on everything,” Andrews told the ABC in his last one-on-one interview.

“If you do that, you’ll get precisely nothing done.”

We saw it so many times.

Whether it was lockdowns and the subsequent pandemic legislation, the Suburban Rail Loop, or the accumulation of state debt.

As evidenced at the last election, none of those things had any lasting impact on his popularity.

Because love or loathe him – and the former premier never feared people hating him – people respected that they knew what he stood for.

Allan has been hampered by her inability until now to establish her own office.

In the meantime, Andrews staffers have continued to call the shots.

This is said to have been central to the loss of key political adviser Ben Hubbard, who quit after just two days in the job.

Hubbard, a former chief of staff to Julia Gillard and longtime friend of Allan’s, was brought on board to help set up her new office.

“He felt unsupported and undermined and had major issues getting Dan’s people to change the existing structure, so he cut his losses,” one source said.

With Andrews staffers still running the show, Allan has been hampered from grabbing the bull by both horns.

Some have been genuinely offended that she wants to make changes, in no small part because it threatens the centralised model of government they created.

On Monday, Allan appointed a new chief of staff, Matt Phelan, who will build a new-look Premier’s office.

And with it insiders hope to see Allan transform from one of the best-performing ministers into a Premier who can deliver a fourth Labor term come 2026.