Shannon Deery: John Pesutto is starting to look like a leader living on borrowed time

While most of the party room remains in his camp, Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto has lost a large swathe of his rank in recent weeks.

John Pesutto is starting to look like a leader living on borrowed time.

He won’t say it publicly, but he would suspect it to be true.

That’s why in a regular radio spot recently he urged Victorians to be patient.

He did the same before 400 members at the Liberal Party’s state conference on Saturday.

Half of that number stood and applauded his vision to reform the party.

The other half didn’t want to know: some older members walked out, others heckled, some booed, in what seasoned Liberals described as unprecedented scenes.

He’s been leader for just five months, and needs longer to implement the reforms he believes can drag the party out of the political wilderness.

And while, on a generous assessment, two thirds of the party room are firmly in his camp, he has lost a vast swathe of the rank and file membership who have already decided he’s not the man for the job.

Leader of the Opposition John Pesutto at the Victorian Liberal State Council on Saturday. Picture: David Crosling

For many, his determination to boot new MP Moira Deeming from the party cemented this view in their minds.

A major problem for Pesutto is that many of those who have turned on him come from Melbourne’s west, where he needs to win seats if he’s any hope of forming government.

Among even close allies the Deeming decision raised questions about Pesutto’s political judgment.

And it raised concerns about his vision for the party.

Some in the party feel it’s the members who seem allergic to change, comfortable to a life of irrelevance and perennial opposition who are the real enemies.

Some delegates showed their support for Moira Deeming. Picture: David Crosling

But there’s no escaping the fact they make much of what’s left of the Victorian Liberal Party these days and cannot be ignored.

So once again, the wolves are scratching at the door, and internal party discussions are contemplating a leadership change.

The talks are preliminary, and there is zero appetite to act imminently.

But to say Pesutto is not in danger of a coup would be to wilfully ignore the party’s recent history.

A challenge to his leadership would be the fourth such challenge since March 2021.

There is a restlessness that runs through the party that is fuelled by factional warfare and the politics of impatience.

There is now virtually no margin for error, as Pesutto has all but found out.

If he could have his time again, Pesutto may have dealt with the Deeming matter in a less bolshie way.

He may have consulted more broadly before acting, and may have decided to have dealt with the matter in house, rather than dragging the party into the public arena.

If he hadn’t moved to expel Deeming, he would likely be afforded a clear run to the 2026 election.

But he did, and the decision has split the party.

Among the most serious problems of a split member base is what that does to Pesutto’s ability to develop policy.

Having colleagues believe in your vision is one thing.

But an inability to unite the wider membership group will spook even the staunchest of supporters and allies.

And if he loses them, it’s game over.