Shannon Deery: Jacinta Allan must extricate herself from Daniel Andrews’ shadow

If the swirling vitriol and collapsing public support is anything to go by, it appears Jacinta Allan is paying the price for Daniel Andrews’ mistakes. She must extricate herself from his shadow before it’s too late.

For many Victorians, Jacinta Allan is an extension of Daniel Andrews. Picture: David Geraghty

It’s been 12 months since Jacinta Allan succeeded Daniel Andrews as Premier.

In that time there has been a wholesale collapse in public support for Labor and the state government.

Polling has been consistent and one-way for Labor, falling to a primary vote low of 30 since Allan took over.

At the same time, the Coalition has shot to a 10-point lead. Whether it can sustain that in the fallout of its almost month-long legal circus is yet to be seen.

There’s an argument that the defamation case that put John Pesutto in a witness box for the better part of a week will be politically fatal. There’s an equally legitimate counterargument that no one outside of Spring St is paying the case the slightest attention.

Either way, it does nothing to solve Allan’s problem: Where does she go from here? Why are Victorians failing to stay behind her?

Look beyond the polls to her social media feedback, and by and large there seems little love for Allan out there.

There’s no “I stand with Jacinta” crowd, as there was for Andrews. There’s no big social media presence pushing out an Allan narrative and vision for Victoria.

An innocuous post about Saturday’s grand final, and how great Melbourne was, invited a pile-on.

Allan was smashed for everything from the failed Commonwealth Games to Big Build blowouts, and the state’s debt. She cops it for the state of the roads, ambulances not turning up on time, clogged hospital waiting rooms and increased taxes.

There’s no “I stand with Jacinta” crowd, as there was for her old boss. Picture: David Crosling

And so she should, it goes with the job. But there appears to be no counternarrative from her party.

Not even her Queensland counterpart Steven Miles – who should already be packing his bags ahead of a forecast election thumping in a few weeks – attracts the sort of vitriol Allan does.

It’s hard not to blame the ghost of Andrews, which looms large for Allan and will continue to do so until the 2026 election.

But after 12 months in the top job, surely she must now take responsibility for failing to extricate herself from his shadow.

For many, Allan is just an extension of Andrews. She was, after all, his preferred successor.

She has made some significant policy shifts to move the government off the Andrews course.

But has she done enough to differentiate herself from him? Indeed, as a senior minister in the Andrews government for so long, could she ever do enough?

Some might see her association with Andrews, the stability and continuity in leadership, as a strength. But for many, the association has morphed into a negative.

To mitigate against the pasting Labor is copping in the polls, Allan has to focus on defining her own vision and policies.

Strengthening her personal brand and connecting with voters on local issues would also help. There are fears at Labor’s highest levels that she’s done nowhere near enough of that.

And she’s running out of time.

If Labor’s primary vote drops to the 20s, it will be panic stations.

Without a change in approach, Jacinta Allan may be handing the election to her opponents. Picture: David Beach

Pollsters say that perhaps the most damaging part of the Andrews problem is the public perception that he controlled so much of our lives.

That now, almost two years to the day since Melbourne emerged from its sixth lockdown, anger about the pandemic response is really taking hold.

“The resentment of the lockdowns is extraordinary,” polling firm RedBridge director Tony Barry says.

Barry conducts weekly focus groups across the state and says voters are now “red hot with rage” over the lockdown issue.

“I find it interesting because when I was doing groups during lockdowns they were cheering Andrews on,” he says.

“In focus groups, voters don’t see Allan as change, they just see her as a continuation of Andrews. She needs to differentiate urgently and that means some pretty big policy backflips – starting with SRL (Suburban Rail Loop), but you can throw in gas and energy as well.

“December will be the halfway mark of the term and a big opportunity for Jacinta to redefine the government and freshen it up.

“Change also means a reshuffle and getting rid of underperforming ministers in key portfolios.

“It’s basically the second Andrews government and not the first Allan government. She needs to make it her own or she loses.”

Barry says its gas policy – banning it from new homes, for example – is indicative of Labor’s problem. Voters want choice, and feel like in too many areas, health care, education and energy to name a few, they’re being forced into positions they dislike.

There was a general sigh of relief within Labor, and among some voters, when Andrews quit 12 months ago.

People wanted a change, and only then would Labor have a shot at a historic fourth term in this state.

Allan might be only in her first term, but that won’t be enough to overcome the fatigue with this government in the electorate.

Without change, Allan might be passing the baton to her opposition. Whether they’re ready for it or not.