Shannon Deery: Issues that will decide the state election

After more than two years of unprecedented disruption to our lives, all indications are that traditional issues won’t decide November’s state election.

The federal election may just be two weeks behind us but before long we’ll be back at the ballot box.

And after more than two years of unprecedented disruption to our lives, all indications are that traditional issues won’t decide November’s state election.

Much like the federal campaign, defined by climate, political integrity and health as key issues, the Victorian election is shaping up in a similar way.

Instead of school funding, law and order, and infrastructure being central to voter intentions, health and integrity will be key.

As will the government’s handling of the pandemic and its plans for Victoria’s recovery.

So too will the cost of living which has emerged as a key issue as inflation and interest rates rise.

With Daniel Andrews at the helm for eight years, he is sure to battle perceptions that its time for a change.

Premier Daniel Andrews’ popularity will tested in some areas.

His government is also coming under increasing pressure over concerns about the arrogance and style with which it operates.

Should the heavy swings against the ALP at the federal election be replicated, Labor will lose a swath of Victorian seats.

But when looking to change, voters will ask themselves whether opposition Matthew Guy and his team are up to the task.

With 179 days until election day, these are shaping up to be the issues that decide the election.

HEALTH

While always a key issue, in the fallout of a pandemic health will be central to voting intentions, specifically hospital and Covid funding.

The government has committed $12bn to fix a broken system with hospital ramping, a fatally flawed triple-0 system and elective surgery waiting list blowouts.

That funding commitment speaks to the seriousness of the crisis facing Victoria’s health system.

Victoria’s hospital system is under extreme pressure due to Covid. Picture: Ian Currie

And with the system already under immense strain, and fears of worse to come through winter, voters will likely reward strong health funding initiatives.

But funding commitments that promise change down the line will only go so far.

Voters are crying out for a stable health system now, with policies that will bring immediate improvements.

INTEGRITY

Daniel Andrews is currently involved in two known corruption probes.

Matthew Guy has his own problems: between his infamous lobster with a mobster dinner and a string of controversies from his time as planning minister.

Since forming government in 2014 Labor has faced a series of corruption allegations.

Research by Small Business Australia has found trust and integrity in government are now at the forefront of voters’ minds.

In the post-Covid political landscape, voter assessments about demonstrated competency might shape up as important as policies about health and economic recovery.

The leaders of both the state’s anti-corruption agencies have raised doubts about their ability to properly do their jobs.

IBAC commissioner Robert Redlich says IBAC is constrained by “onerous” laws, and Ombudsman Deborah Glass has criticised Victoria’s current legislative framework as being insufficient.

Guy has vowed to beef-up the powers of IBAC and increase its funding if elected to government in November.

COST OF LIVING

Polling has found almost one quarter of voters, 22.7 per cent, considered the issue likely to influence their vote.

Groceries are more expensive, petrol prices are soaring, inflation is rising, so too are interest rates.

Rising petrol prices are contributing to cost of living pressures. Picture: Morgan Sette

Victorian Council of Social Service chief Emma King believes the pandemic had exacerbated concerns around the cost of living for many.

“So many Victorians were doing it tough before Covid, and that number has only grown since,” she said.

“Cost of living is absolutely a top-tier issue heading into an election year.

“A whole new group of people are struggling to pay their bills for the first time in their lives — and they all get a vote.”

Voters will reward whoever can come up with policies that offer hip-pocket relief, and fast.

DEBT LEVELS

Victoria is staring down the barrel of record debt by 2025: $167bn.

To put that in perspective, that’s $25,000 for every single Victorian – and more than double that of each person in NSW.

By 2025 our debt is on track to equal that of NSW, Queensland and South Australia combined, or 26 per cent of gross state product.

Before it quietly scrapped the target, the state aimed to keep net debt under 12 per cent.

While it’s been easy for governments to borrow money, people don’t seem to be worried about debt levels like they used to.

Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas is confident his Party can mange the budget. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

It’s meant big holes in the ground and lots of big exciting projects.

But with interest rates on the up, that debt is becoming a bigger pain on the budget.

You don’t have to look too far in the rear-view mirror, think the 1980s and ’90s, to see what happens with the toxic mix of high debt levels and high interest rates.

And as it gets harder to balance the books, service delivery is bound to take a hit.

PANDEMIC RECOVERY

How the parties plan to navigate Victoria’s recovery should earn votes.

With life virtually back to normal, there will be extra marks on hand for plans that forge a real economic recovery.

Covid restrictions wreaked havoc on many businesses. Picture: David Geraghty

The government has looked to major events to get Victoria back on track, including the multi-billion dollar 2026 Commonwealth Games.

But a bigger test will be how it ensures the economy and communities can survive and thrive during another winter with Covid-19 present.

With a changed working dynamic, parties will also be given extra marks for planning a proper CBD recovery.

SMALL BUSINESS

Small Business has taken a massive hit since 2020.

Small Business Australia executive director Bill Lang says there is still fury and frustration that so many small businesses remained crippled by Covid.

What parties can offer small businesses will be a key factor for voting intention for many.

And while that’s traditionally a Liberal type issue, lots of people work small businesses, including lots of traditional Labor voters.

And because of that, Victoria’s successive lockdowns and lingering resentment may be hard for Labor to overcome.

Because there are lots of people who don’t work in offices, who’ve been hit really hard by lockdown policies.

And lots of them live in safe Labor seats in blue collar occupations.

Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor