Shannon Deery: Dead man walking leads a Liberal Party lost in political wilderness

The Liberal Party should have the government on the ropes but instead it is missing in action, comfy in its natural habitat: the political wilderness — and time is running out for John Pesutto.

There are few who think Opposition Leader John Pesutto can succeed. Picture: Josie Hayden

Make no mistake, the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party is broken.

Insiders say complacency, laziness, factional score-settling and a lack of policy ideation is now endemic to the biggest pretenders on Spring Street.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto’s two most senior advisers have left a sinking ship. Now try as he must to navigate into clear waters, there are few who think Pesutto can succeed.

Even some among his most loyal supporters are privately describing him as a dead man walking.

It’s the same way they described former leader Michael O’Brien in July 2021 just months before he was rolled in favour of Matthew Guy.

In that time the party has been through almost more leadership changes than it has published public policy positions.

And for what? Rather than edging closer to electoral success and its second shot at government since 1999, the party is losing ground.

O’Brien was knifed for his poor performance and woeful polling.

Michael O’Brien was knifed for his poor performance and woeful polling. Picture: David Crosling

In the three years since, the polls haven’t been kinder to the Liberal Party as they were under his watch.

In the months before he was ousted O’Brien’s Coalition recorded a primary vote of 41 per cent.

That was up from 35.2 per cent at the 2018 election, while Labor’s had dropped to 37 per cent from 42.8 per cent.

In December the Coalition was languishing at 31 per cent, up from a low of 26 per cent, in June.

O’Brien’s killing was emblematic of what Pesutto has come to learn: there is an inherent inability of Liberal leaders to wield power over their partyroom.

It poses an enduring threat.

As does the ideological problem caused by a combination of declining membership and a party that is unwilling to unite on key issues.

When Pesutto took the reins in the weeks following the Coalition’s latest election thumping, he promised change.

Despite winning the leadership ballot to Brad Battin by a single vote, he vowed to bring the party together.

It was a naive promise by someone who really should have known better.

He has been comprehensively unable to do anything of the sort in his time in the top job.

That’s not necessarily to denigrate his efforts: he may be the latest in a long line of leaders besieged by the structural problems of his party.

John Pesutto has suffered the same undermining and destabilising that happened under Michael O’Brien. Picture: Getty Images

He has hardly been given the time or space to prove his worth. He has suffered the same undermining and destabilising that happened under O’Brien.

But he hasn’t helped himself, either. His handling of the Moira Deeming affair trashed any goodwill afforded to him by those opposed to his leadership.

It raised serious questions about his judgment which he has failed to quell.

It created fierce enemies within his party room, and has taken too much of his attention since.

Time and again his judgment has been called into question by his colleagues.

Whether it’s over a perceived lack of consultation with MPs, his handling of major policy positions or his management of the partyroom.

On Sunday, in announcing the departure of his chief of staff and media director, Pesutto said their roles were only ever 12-month appointments.

No one in the party believes that, and Pesutto’s comments from the time of their appointments contradicts that.

Pesutto’s handling of the Moira Deeming affair trashed any goodwill afforded to him by those opposed to his leadership. Picture: Facebook

So again, questions about his judgment have surfaced. Even his closest allies in the party room are aghast at how it has all played out.

Key stakeholders have also questioned Pesutto’s judgment and ability to engage.

His fiercest critics say his insular leadership style has excluded those now gunning for change. He has kept his distance from backbenchers and shadow cabinet members, and has been criticised for failing to heed advice. And he has failed to demonstrate that he can appeal to the tens of thousands of former Labor supporters in the outer suburbs the Liberals need to win over.

It is perhaps for that alone that Pesutto’s leadership will ultimately fail. Whether there is a coup to oust him, or whether he bows out.

One thing is for certain, until the party stops hunting for the elusive magic bullet, there will be no change.

“They always think it’s one personality or issue that’s going to deliver them government,” former strategist Tony Barry says.

“They think knowledge is the enemy.

“Trying to explain politics to the Victorian Liberals is like trying to explain gravity to a labrador”.

It’s a harsh assessment.

But is it wrong?

The Labor government is into its third term, its legislative agenda is a mess, and state debt is out of control.

The Libs should have the government on the ropes.

Instead, the opposition is missing in action, comfy in its natural habitat: the political wilderness.

If anyone can fight to survive, it will be Pesutto. But time is running out.

Shannon Deery is the Herald Sun’s state politics editor