Seven sins that could haunt Matt Guy’s election chances

Matt Guy’s election campaign keeps hitting choppy waters and he faces another crushing loss if he can’t address these main issues.

In 2018, Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy and his coalition team were thumped by Labor at the state election.

A review of its campaign highlighted problems and issues that contributed to the loss, but it’s hardly been smooth sailing since that time with a change of leadership last year.

The state politics team at the Herald Sun has nominated seven deadly sins that the opposition – and rebranded leader Matt Guy – can’t afford to make again.

1. Remaining mystery Matt

He’s been in parliament since 2006 and around politics most of his life, but many voters didn’t really know who Matthew Guy was in 2018, when he led the coalition to a heavy loss. A Liberal Party review of that loss showed 17 per cent of people at polling booths didn’t know who he was. He shielded his family from the spotlight but that left a huge gap in the portrait of a future premier. This time around, wife Renae and the couple’s three children are in campaign material and have been by his side during the parliamentary term.

Matthew Guy’s wife Renae and their three children. Picture: David Caird

Even so, when a scandal erupted around his chief of staff soliciting donations from a billionaire, Liberals feared that Labor would once again be allowed to colour in the portrait of Guy as it saw fit. The task has been further complicated by the Liberals’ change of leadership last year, when Michael O’Brien was removed by the party room in favour of Guy.

Matthew Guy, with former chief of staff Mitch Catlin and MP David Southwick. Picture: Tim Carrafa

2. Being a one trick pony

In 2018, the coalition put most eggs in the law and order basket, which didn’t resonate with enough voters, and zeroed in on Labor scandals. It failed to broaden its messaging and barely mentioned issues like health, with a lack of policy coherence across the board. The focus on law and order and scandals was complicated by allegations that Guy had dined with a mobster. The Liberal Party later admitted that a focus on “African gangs” was at times counter-productive because it “became a distraction for some key voters who saw it as a political tactic rather than an authentic problem”.

The law and order campaign in 2018 failed to resonate with voters. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

3. Poor campaigning

When the Liberal Party unveiled a sparkling new campaigning tool last term, expectations were high. The i360 database was supposed to connect candidates with voter information obtained via doorknocking, which could be built upon via field campaigns. Not only were party members not adequately equipped and trained to use the i360 technology, it led to problems such as postal vote applications being mailed to dead people. The imported software was later dumped.

4. Keep the purse strings tight

A war between some Liberals and the Party’s primary donor, the Cormack Foundation, turned off the funding tap in 2018 and crippled the opposition’s campaign. Many MPs said there was a lack of advertising as a result, and that this impacted on how many voters knew about Guy and his plans for Victoria. Reports are that the relationship has since been repaired, and there is now an expectation that money will flow more freely. The need might be more acute this year, given that the Liberals are set to face a fight on multiple fronts due to the emergence of ‘teal’ independents in traditional party strongholds in inner Melbourne.

The Liberals are facing a fight on multiple fronts this election. Picture: Mark Wilson

5. Talk about themselves

Voters hate it when political parties focus on themselves, rather than constituents. In 2018, federal MPs were tearing each other down and Malcolm Turnbull was rolled as prime minister, replaced by Scott Morrison. Although it was federal warfare dominating the airwaves, it stifled the Victorian coalition’s ability to get clear air and sell its messages to voters. A review of the 2018 state election loss says instability also disrupted fundraising for local candidates and for Guy, while factionalism and personal vendettas also emerged and impacted the broader state campaign.

6. Rely on dodgy polling

In the lead up to election day in 2018, many candidates were told they were going to win their seats who didn’t get close. Some of the polling commissioned was rubbish, while some party elders may have decided to create a false narrative to help bolster Liberal momentum. Some of those who worked on marginal seats were gobsmacked that they didn’t get within 10 per cent when told they were probably in front, or neck-and-neck, just days from the election. More rigorous data must be obtained by the coalition this year, with a focus on where it can improve and close the gap on Labor or independent candidates.

7. Focus too much on Dan

For the past decade, critics of Dan Andrews have fixated on the Labor leader, without success. During the pandemic, the premier became even more divisive and according to many Liberals is a weak link for the ALP.

The fixation on Dan Andrews has not helped. Picture: David Crosling

Whether this is true is beside the point, because the opposition must focus on outlining to voters what it plans to do in power. Many have targeted Andrews during his time in the leadership, but he’s proven himself an immovable object. Turning the election into a presidential-style contest between two leaders – neither of who are particularly popular – is unlikely to be a ticket to victory for the coalition. Instead it must do what Labor did at the last election, according to Liberal elder Tony Nutt, and highlight “matters of direct relevance to key voters in the seats required”.