Rita Panahi: Flawed coronavirus modelling fuelled alarmist fire
Much of the modelling behind the coronavirus lockdowns has proved to be so absurdly wrong that it’s been labelled “worthless”, but it’s been swallowed hook, line and sinker by the alarmist media, writes Rita Panahi.
Rita Panahi
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Has the coronavirus pandemic made us dumber or just exposed the depths of idiocy and groupthink in the media, academia and political class.
From the start, critical thinking and sober reflection were sidelined as “stay home, save lives” slogans and doomsday predictions were regurgitated as if they were indisputable facts rather than part of a panicked response.
Any questioning of the modelling behind the restrictions was tantamount to “science denial” and, worse, those who doubted the merits of the shutdown or feared the unintended consequences were accused of not caring for the elderly and infirm. Never mind those consequences may very well lead to a death toll higher than that caused by the virus.
Already much of the modelling has proved to be so absurdly wrong that it’s been labelled “worthless” and likened to “crystal ball gazing”. The Imperial College code that determined the UK’s response, and influenced many other nations, is so error-riddled scientists from the University of Edinburgh found they got wildly different results when entering identical data.
David Richards, CEO of tech firm WANdisco, told the UK’s Daily Telegraph he’d fire anyone who presented code that was faulty.
“It’s a buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming,” Richards said.
The modelling in Victoria has been no less farcical, with claims that “36,000 Victorians would have died” if not for the lockdown.
As Adam Creighton noted in The Australian, based on the ludicrous Victorian data Japan and South Korea, which didn’t go into lockdowns along Victorian lines, would have coronavirus deaths of 635,000 and 256,000 respectively. The deaths thus far have been 771 in Japan and 264 in South Korea.
The bulk of the reporting on the crisis has been simplistic, alarmist and designed to scare the bejesus out of the masses. Nowhere has that been more evident than in the coverage of the pandemic in the US, which has been coloured with selective reporting, half-truths and barely concealed Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis became so irate with the biased coverage that on Thursday he blasted the media for spinning a “typical, partisan narrative” instead of reporting facts. One can understand his frustration given his administration was accused of reckless disregard for life for staged lifting of restrictions, while New York governor Andrew Cuomo has been praised for his supposedly hard line response.
DeSantis was even accused of engaging in “human sacrifice” for his “woefully underprepared” response to the virus. Cuomo was labelled a “true leader”, applauded for his “wisdom and competence”. The fact DeSantis is Republican and Cuomo a Democrat had everything to do with it.
New York (America’s fourth most populous state) is a disaster zone while Florida (third most populous state) has performed admirably in responsibly reopening the economy while protecting the vulnerable.
New York’s atrocious figures stand at 1478 deaths per one million of population, more than five times the US average of 287. In contrast, Florida has 98 deaths per one million of population despite being the second oldest state, with more than 20 per cent of residents aged over 65 compared to New York’s 16.4 per cent.
Of course factors such as warm weather and high density living have an influence, but among the most insanely ruinous decisions made by Cuomo was to order nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients, exposing a vulnerable population. That’s seen more than 5800 New Yorkers die in nursing homes from COVID-19 compared to about 970 in Florida.
To get an accurate picture of what is happening in the US it’s important to not only look at per capita figures but also compare state by state data.
Despite President Donald Trump’s bluster, he was among the first to impose travel bans and has taken every recommendation made by the expert medical panel.
But, as with Australia, each state leader is responsible for lockdown measures and how they re-open their economies, and the responses have been widely disparate.
The US has recorded about 95,000 deaths, with an average of 287 deaths per million of population, a figure above Switzerland (219) and Canada (160) but below the UK (526), France (431) and Belgium (790).
Despite the negative coverage most US states have performed admirably when measured against international standards. Among the best performed is the second most populous state, Texas, which has only 49 deaths per million of population despite being among the first to reopen for business.
Rita panahi is a Herald Sun columnist