Even the arrogant AFL has baulked at upsetting more than half its audience by campaigning for a Voice ‘yes’ vote

The AFL has a history of relentlessly leftist political activism so you know the ‘yes’ Voice case is circling the drain when it decides not to campaign on its biggest day.

You know the ‘yes’ case is circling the drain when the most politically active and relentlessly leftist sporting organisation in the land opts out of pro-Voice activism on its biggest day.

The AFL has read the room and determined it’s best not alienate the majority of the country with divisive racial politics on Grand Final day.

It is a devastating blow for the Anthony Albanese government and the ‘yes’ advocates seeking to enshrine racial privilege into the nation’s founding document. Indeed, it’s been widely reported that the referendum date of October 14 was selected to take advantage of an extravaganza of pro-Voice messaging at the AFL and NRL grand finals – on September 30 and October 1 – that would be seen by millions of sports fans.

The AFL will not use the Grand Final to push the merits of the race-based referendum. Picture: Jason Edwards

Players and clubs are free to campaign but the AFL will not use the Grand Final nor the finals series as a platform to push the merits of the race-based referendum.

Could this be a new era for the AFL under incoming CEO Andrew Dillon where they, shock horror, concentrate on the business of running the country’s leading football body and leave the politicking to the politicians? It’s far too early to draw that conclusion and given the AFL’s track record we’re unlikely to be spared their regular bouts of incoherent virtue signalling on a range of issues.

Back in February I wrote about the dangers of the AFL playing a dangerous and divisive game of race politics that would be certain to alienate huge segments of the community. Let’s not forget that this year the league grappled with a damaging race scandal involving two senior coaches, Alastair Clarkson and Chris Fagan, who were unfairly maligned after a discredited review commissioned by the Hawthorn Football Club. As I wrote back then Gill McLachlan’s legacy will be tarnished by this self-inflicted crisis.

As recently as last month the AFL was defending its pro-Voice activism. Dillon speaking at a press conference at the Garma Festival in northeast Arnhem Land said: “The AFL as an organisation has come out in support of a Yes vote. We think that is very important from an AFL point of view with the number of First Nations players that we have, the number of First Nations men and women we have working in the AFL … what we say to the people of Australia is to make sure you educate yourself.”

It’s been reported that the referendum date was picked to take advantage of an extravaganza of pro-Voice messaging at the AFL Grand Final. Picture: Jason Edwards

There are those in the ‘yes’ camp who claim that the AFL’s decision is actually a win for their side given Australians’ distaste for sports and politics mixing but it’s clear that recent polls on the Voice have played a part in the league’s decision.

Even an organisation as arrogant as the AFL would baulk at upsetting more than 50 per cent of the potential audience. This week we had two major polls, Newspoll and Essential, showing the pro-Voice agenda bleeding support. Nationally support for the Voice has fallen to 38 per cent, with the no vote at 53 per cent; the first time the no vote has achieved an outright majority with Newspoll. The Left-leaning Guardian Essential poll had the yes vote falling to 42 per cent trailing the no vote on 48 per cent with 10 per cent undecided. A deeper look at the data shows just what a hole the yes side is in with their numbers in free fall in every demographic. About the only demo that is still majority yes is the under 35s and that fell from 59 to 55 per cent.

And the AFL would’ve noted that only one in three Australian men plan to vote yes in the referendum. The Voice is in such peril that some of its loudest supporters have dramatically shifted their approach to campaigning. Take Noel Pearson, founder of the Cape York Partnership, who earlier in the year was attacking no campaigners, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Warren Mundine, in the ugliest terms, calling them “glove puppets” who allow themselves to be used by clever white folk to “punch down on indigenous people”.

But Pearson has clearly noted that bully boy tactics are not a winning strategy and has changed tack dramatically. At the Australian newspaper’s Great Voice Debate on Tuesday night he was all softness and understanding.

“We’ve got to listen respectfully to those people who have reservations or questions or concerns,” he said.

“We have got to deal with them in good faith. We have to believe their questions come from a good place.”

It’s amazing what six bad polls in five weeks can do.