Peta Credlin: Voters show contempt for both major parties

AUSTRALIA faces three years of weak and directionless government after voters delivered what looks more and more like another hung parliament, writes Peta Credlin.

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AS MOST people went to bed last night, Australia faced three years of weak and directionless government after voters delivered what looks more and more like another hung parliament and a senate dominated by Greens and populist independents.

It was just too close to call.

Even if it is a narrow win for the Coalition this is a disaster for Malcolm Turnbull, who justified his leadership coup with the promise of an election win with an economic plan; a triumph for Bill Shorten, who has ­defied the pundits with an energetic but fiscally flawed campaign based on spending more on schools and hospitals; and a catastrophe for the country because it guarantees that there will be no serious attempt to get government to live within its means.

Both big parties are finding it hard to manage 40 per cent of the vote from an electorate that knows what it doesn’t want but struggles to know what it does.

Public disillusionment with mainstream politics has rarely been higher.

Turnbull was seen as a left-winger pretending to be a right-winger; Shorten a right-winger pretending to be a left-winger.

Malcolm Turnbull is all smiles as he leaves his home. Picture: AAP

Yet a public that claims to want leaders who are fair dinkum had earlier ­rejected Tony Abbott who obviously was.

Perhaps our real problem has been a poll-obsessed media that fostered powerplays ahead of good government.

Or, worse still, have political insider decisions to roll elected prime ministers led voters to say “enough is enough — if you won’t trust us, we won’t trust you”?

Following last night’s vote count, the first challenge will be actually coming up with a final result and a prime minister and this could take days.

As the incumbent, Mr Turnbull would seem to have an advantage but his authority has been badly, perhaps fatally, undermined within his own party.

As the left-of-centre contender, Shorten would find it easier to promise populist independents the extra social spending and the softer border protection regime they’ll want. But, as we have seen before with Rudd and Gillard, this is how we got into this budget mess in the first place.

Both big parties promised not to do a deal with the Greens to form a government. Most Liberals would rather go into opposition than sacrifice their economic and national security credentials in a government that’s hostage to crossbench populists.

Labor’s predilection, by contrast, has usually been for big social programs at the ­expense of budget rigour.

Bill Shorten with his wife Chloe. Picture: Stuart McEvoy

Turnbull might be the left’s ideal Liberal leader but his own party is more likely to junk him than its principles, even if it means losing office — so I expect a Shorten prime ministership to be the most likely outcome of a hung parliament.

If he doesn’t get enough seats in his own right, Malcolm Turnbull needs to win the negotiations under the hung parliament scenario.

If Turnbull can somehow win over the independents without losing his own party, the risk is that it would be a government that’s in office but not in power.

Obviously, the tough-on-unions measures that triggered the double dissolution election won’t proceed. Likewise, the company tax cuts for larger businesses won’t go ahead ­either.

But there could be an even bigger hit on superannuation to fund the extra spending that will be the price of independents’ support. The horsetrading would be intense.

If Bill Shorten was to win the negotiations around a hung parliament, a Shorten government would inevitably water down elements of the ­Abbott-era border protection measures, which would restart the people-smuggling trade, slowly at first, but with the prospect of ever-increasing numbers.

Of course, the unions would have a veto over all decision-making after Shorten’s promise to govern like a union leader.

Over time, with ever higher social spending, it’s likely that we would face Europe’s economic problems as well as its border protection ones.

It might be possible for a time to persuade people that our difficulties were just part of a global trend but eventually Australia could face a Brexit moment when both major parties are thoroughly repudiated by an electorate that’s had enough.

In opposition, the Liberal Party would swiftly elect a new leader. It probably won’t be Tony Abbott who wouldn’t relish the prospect of having to save his party twice.

It probably won’t be current deputy Julie Bishop who is now, after three leaders, seen to have had her go if comments from her colleagues last night are anything to go by.

Scott Morrison, despite his diffidence as Treasurer, is probably the party room’s likely option but others claim his rumoured involvement in last year’s coup has hurt his standing with conservatives.

Malcolm Turnbull speaks on election night. Picture: Jason Edwards

In opposition in a hung parliament, Labor would be smart to stick with Shorten who has performed above expectation and would deserve another chance at the top job. Labor’s challenge will be deciding whether to consolidate on the left or to appeal to the middle ground over the next term.

I think Shorten would have much more long-term success emulating Bob Hawke than Bob Brown ­although it’s hard to say that veering left has hurt him in this campaign.

But, when it is all said and done, to end another election night without a result so soon after the 2010 hung parliament saddens me.

There’s every chance the government might end up returned as the “in doubt” seats are ­finalised in coming days, but it will be a very slim majority only and a difficult senate.

All of this won’t make it easy to deliver the tough but necessary budget repair needed to ensure Australia can pay for its future.

Watch SKY NEWS political contributor Peta Credlin appear exclusively on The Bolt Report, Ch601, Mondays, 7pm.