Opinion: No new cash but Suburban Rail Loop ain’t dead yet

Surely Infrastructure Australia’s critical assessment and no new funding from Canberra means it’s time to down tools on the Cheltenham to Box Hill line? Not quite.

The Suburban Rail Loop ain’t dead yet.

Sure, there wasn’t an extra dollar of federal funding for the project in the federal budget, handed down by Jim Chalmers on Tuesday night.

But there was never going to be, so soon after an Infrastructure Australia assessment of the project that slammed the business case and exposed the loop’s risks, which include the cost of the $34.5bn first stage blowing out.

But surely because Infrastructure Australia gave a critical assessment and there is no top up funding from Canberra – the Allan government wants an eye-watering $9.3bn from Canberra – it should mean tools down on the Cheltenham to Box Hill line?

Not quite.

For starters, it has $11.5bn in state funding from the Allan government.

The Allan government is backing in the SRL. Picture: Wayne Taylor

It also has $2.2bn that was promised by Anthony Albanese during the last federal election, and which Infrastructure Australia waved through last week – despite raising more red flags about the SRL than Formula One officials wave during a race crash.

There’s also the fact that $5.3bn in contracts for tunnelling have been inked.

Given that there are still 10 years to run until the rail line is due to open, and the state can get by on existing funding for a few years yet, there’s also still time to get Commonwealth cash.

And if you listen carefully to Jim Chalmers following the federal budget, he’s not shutting the door on more cash, despite Infrastructure Australia’s damning assessment.

“We believe in it, we think it’s a project worthy of Commonwealth investment,” he said, referring to the $2.2bn handed over so far.

Works underway on the SRL at Box Hill. Picture: Mark Stewart

Of course, should Peter Dutton lead the Liberals and Nationals to victory in May, it could theoretically be a different story.

At some stage Dutton will need to reveal what he really thinks about the SRL, and whether the door to federal funding would close if he was PM.

His state counterparts say the loop should be cancelled immediately.

But the route of the SRL East, a 26km rail line from Cheltenham to Box Hill, goes through or very near the border of the seats of Goldstein, Isaacs, Hotham, Chisholm, Deakin, and Menzies.

If Dutton does snip the loop, and Albanese keeps it alive, it would test whether the project is as popular with voters as Victorian Labor believes.

We shall soon see if that’s a test Dutton really wants to take.