Matthew Johnston: While coronavirus is under control, so too is Dan

Given Daniel Andrews became the face of tackling the second wave, he is now intrinsically linked to the pandemic’s success or failure in Victoria.

Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: Ian Currie

When chatter grew this year about Dan Andrews’ potential political retirement, one union veteran scoffed at the idea.

Bill Kelty, who secured support for Hawke and Keating government reforms in the 1980s and ’90s, saw the horrors of 2020 resulting in an opportunity for the Labor leader.

With the banks lengthening the leash for spending — one of Dan’s favourite things to do since he was sworn in as Premier in 2014 — the game had changed.

“Now is the time to do the big things,” he told one newspaper.

Kelty isn’t alone in seeing opportunity knocking at the door as long as governments can keep COVID-19 on the floor.

That health objective, rather than economic reform, remains the core priority for Andrews in early 2021.

This is not only a “Dan problem” of course.

Just look at what has happened in NSW over the past weeks, where a cluster of cases threatens to explode — and infiltrate our borders.

But given Andrews decided to become the public face of tackling the second wave, he is now intrinsically linked to the success or failure of the end result of the pandemic in Victoria.

Should a significant third wave emerge, some Labor insiders — including fans of Dan — doubt he would survive.

Let’s assume for a moment that Australia remains relatively COVID-free, however.

The No. 1 objective then becomes creating jobs and pathways to jobs, which is a similar objective to that of the federal government and Scott Morrison.

So far, Andrews has viewed that as a challenge to be met by stimulus.

This is a relatively safe place for him, having already thrown the bank at major infrastructure projects.

It’s the “small” stuff, however, that will keep most people feeling confident in their state’s fortunes.

This was a huge factor in the 2018 state election.

There were plenty of people who felt that things were going OK, and that this Andrews guy was building stuff and things were happening, so why chuck him out?

The Opposition assumed that what worried people then — crime, cost of living — would trump the economic reality on the ground.

Leader of the Opposition Michael O'Brien. Picture: Daniel Pockett

The next election will present a unique situation for Opposition leader Michael O’Brien.

In the face of what will inevitably be financial carnage for many people and businesses once loan deferrals and government handouts run out, he needs to present a positive vision of what he would do for the state.

No one should underestimate the scale of destruction coming, but to present an alternative that makes a real difference to people’s working lives — not just one aimed at typical Liberal voters — will be critical.

For economic conservatives such as O’Brien, how far to let the purse strings dangle will weigh heavily on his mind.

If it weighs too heavily, it will affect his chance to pull off one of the great political upsets in modern history.

One of O’Brien’s priorities while tackling his policy agenda will be to first keep his team in check, even as ambitions rage.

This had been a challenge for Dan, too, but that is less pressing now that key challengers are sidelined and his popularity among the party’s base remains relatively high.

One thing to remember about next year is that Prime Minister Scott Morrison could head to the polls. Even if he waits until early 2022, that’s still a long way before the next state election, which is set for November 2022.

Economic handouts to tackle the pandemic have been a key Commonwealth mechanism, and will be the No. 1 focus of so many people in the coming year. Reduce them too quickly and people will stop spending.

There has been little sign of major economic reform that could shake the cage at a state level — especially while there is a government of a different political persuasion in power.

Andrews likes to strut on the national stage, like Labor leaders before him, but is similar to Morrison in the way he approaches politics. They are ruthless pragmatists.

If there are more losers than winners, don’t bet on change.

Some people view Andrews as a social engineer but most of the reforms his leftie comrades have won are only introduced when there’s a mandate, popular support, or economic incentives.

One left winger who has watched the Premier closely over the years points to the public housing crisis that emerged in recent years.

Finally, at the most recent budget, a spending splurge was pledged after years of neglect, because the boost to the construction and property market was obvious — as well as the social good.

Some people believe Andrews will embrace more ambitious left wing reforms, particularly in justice.

I doubt he will go too far, especially now that his left-hand man Gavin Jennings has departed and other social warriors have stepped back.

Instead, I’d expect largely more of the same in 2021, but hopefully without coronavirus calamities.

The government will spend up on safe and useful infrastructure — housing, schools, and hospitals — and focus on jobs at all costs.

This would create a political challenge for O’Brien, because it would present a smaller target even if there are more horrendous budget blowouts coming.

There are a lot of smaller issues nipping at the heels of the government, and don’t be surprised if a left field integrity issue rears its head next year.

As Andrews has repeatedly shown, however, this may not shift the dial significantly.

What would shift the dial is if Andrews was to exit the stage, against the advice of Kelty and co.

The year 2020 shredded the rule book on politics and power due to the pandemic, and who knows when it will return.

Whether leaders see this is a gift to dream big, like Kelty, or whether they try to stick to the same old script won’t emerge until later in the year — hopefully when coronavirus is officially crushed.

MATTHEW JOHNSTON IS HERALD SUN MAJOR PROJECTS EDITOR