Matthew Johnston: Hot-button issues a question of our priorities
HOW voters and parties rate the importance of issues in the lead-up to November’s state election could have a big say in the result, says Matt Johnston.
Opinion
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IF you were on Family Feud and host Grant Denyer asked what was the top issue facing Victoria, how would you answer? Polling company Ipsos plays a version of this game every month and its February survey of 800 people came up with crime (49 per cent) at top spot.
That’s been the most popular response for a year.
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The next big issue is housing (36 per cent), followed by cost of living (27). Rounding out the top five answers — those surveyed give three answers each — were healthcare (23), and transport (22).
In isolation, those results might seem like grim reading for Labor, with the Coalition going on the rampage over law and order and images of gangs or home invasions popping up on TV screens seemingly every other night.
It also seems to resemble 2010, when people were worried about street bashings and violence and the Coalition won a state election off the back of a strong sentencing and anti-violence campaign.
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But what’s interesting about the issues presented in the monthly surveys is how quickly things can change. In 2014, when Labor produced an election victory many thought was improbable, health was dominating the public consciousness and unemployment/jobs were weighing on our minds.
On a deeper reading of some of today’s concerns, there some hope for the government. The most recent quarterly result, between October and December, showed crime was nominated by 42 per cent of people, down from 51 per cent the previous year. While that may seem counter-intuitive, given the chest-thumping that’s gone on regarding the issue, Ipsos deputy managing director Dan Evans said in January that the Victorian Coalition led Labor by only 5 percentage points when people were asked which party was best placed to manage the issue.
Evans also says the constant coverage of crime could see it turn into a “new normal” and diminish its importance to voters.
The second most pressing issue Victorians face at the moment is housing. There’s an opportunity for both parties to earn some brownie points with people here — and it will be interesting to see who gets out of the gates first.
Labor went near to it last year when it cut stamp duty for first home buyers. The reach of that policy was limited, however.
It might be time to go further.
Meanwhile, the Coalition’s campaign to make population resonate with the public has seen it now nominated by more than one in eight Victorians. The flip side to that is that Labor’s flurry of activity this term, in which it has been busily building around the state, has made a lot of people believe it can manage the issue.
Interestingly, population concerns are above education, despite the Premier Daniel Andrews’ push to make Victoria the education state.
One of the under-rated things Labor has done since the election is build schools and fix local infrastructure, projects that are being noticed by locals. New schools weren’t being built last term. At the same time, it’s been fighting a battle for more funding from the federal government.
The minister in that space is Deputy Premier James Merlino, who last year was also saddled with the portfolio of emergency services. And that poisoned chalice is going to take up an immense amount of effort and time in the lead-up to the next election, even though it doesn’t rate a mention on the Ipsos survey.
Daniel Andrews knows where he is pinning his hopes and it’s largely focused on construction sites. Asked this week whether he accepted people called the level crossing removal program along the Cranbourne-Pakenham lines as “sky rail”, he said, cringingly, that he preferred to call it “getting things done”.
But will voters think he has got enough done and can he be trusted to get things done again?
The strength of both parties’ policies in the issues further down the answer board — namely housing and cost of living — will play a large role in election success, something both sides have clearly acknowledged.
What isn’t rating much of a mention in the past few months is the economy, or Budget issues.
As one senior Liberal said to me recently, people just don’t seem as concerned about that issue at the moment.
And while there have been murmurings around the money Labor has spent in only three years, the other side doesn’t seem to be going as hard as it might — perhaps because it’s gearing up for its own spending spree.
Many senior Labor figures are considering the potential for a power-sharing arrangement with Greens MPs if the party takes a haircut in key seats but few seem to entertain the possibility of losing the election outright. Some naive MPs think it’s incomprehensible that they may not be in the box seat come November.
The ones who listen closely to their communities might be in a different head space.
Crime will remain high on the agenda this year whether Labor likes it or not, and it is desperate to improve its standing as to “who is best to handle the issue”.
That’s also one of the reasons Labor is trying to paint Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as a mobster’s mate and why this election might turn dirty.
The government doesn’t want to risk a rerun of 2010.
But for now, the surveys say it could happen.
Matt Johnston is state politics editor
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