Matt Johnston: Victorian Premier not afraid of getting stuck into the Coalition Government
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is happy to bag the Coalition Government in the lead up to the federal election because he thinks he can get away with it, writes Matt Johnston.
Opinion
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The day after federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed down a Budget stuffed with tax cuts and cash for Victorian infrastructure, Premier Daniel Andrews volunteered this view.
“Victorians have a right to be angry,” he said.
“They should be concerned and angry at a government that has delivered nothing, and it is looking to continue that way.”
The Labor leader went on to bag Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s offer to help build fast Geelong rail, describing it as money that was being made available so far down the track it was basically on the “never-never”.
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“As if Victorians are foolishly going to buy that,” he said.
While that seemed a bit rich from a Premier who promotes a $50 billion suburban rail loop that has no feasibility study, business case, firm timeline, or funding, Andrews is betting he can get away with it because he has form building things.
The federal government also made it easier for the Premier by failing to allocate a dollar towards the project until 2021.
Morrison has been exceedingly pleasant towards Andrews in public in the past month, and he is about to find out exactly what to expect in return: a savage burn at every turn.
State Labor in Victoria is gearing up for the mother of all campaigns against the federal government, rolling out advertisements directed against Morrison and his team.
They include a billboard featuring a grumpy-looking Peter Dutton (a not-so-subtle nod to the failed coup against Malcolm Turnbull), and another featuring Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson.
This will be accompanied by constant attacks from state Labor ministers.
In return, the Liberals’ campaign in Victoria is likely to focus on tax, tax, and more tax, along with personal swings at the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten.
Most MPs know it’s going to be tough to curry much favour in Victoria, however.
Individual Liberal MPs in marginal seats have spent a lot of time raising money to defend their turf, and are hoping Labor will get greedy by casting its net too wide in the search for extra seats.
But there are still substantial problems within the state Liberal Party that have distracted them from focusing wholly on the upcoming election.
Many state Liberal MPs are keeping their heads down, wondering whether their federal chums, who derailed their November campaign so spectacularly, will cop the wrath of voters next month.
On the other hand, state Labor MPs and ministers are emboldened by that November campaign and are ready to attack a Liberal government on just about anything.
Before the final Budget figures were even known, lines about inadequate federal education and health funding were being rehearsed.
It’s not unusual for MPs to go after those on the other side even if at times it stretches the bounds of credibility. However, a premier is typically more reserved in criticising a PM.
Not so Daniel Andrews.
Some have pondered whether the Premier is keen to help out Shorten because he feels bad
about hurting the federal leader’s election chances in Victoria in 2016, during the toxic Country Fire Authority dispute.
Yeah, nah.
It is much more likely that he’s worked out how much he needs Shorten in the Lodge to get more money, as well as short-term traction on policy matters of common ground.
The Premier is banking on getting away with his constant attacks on Canberra because the whiff around the federal government in Victoria is like the pong from week-old fish in a poorly functioning fridge.
On April 30, before voters can have their say at the federal election, Andrews and his Treasurer, Tim Pallas, will be producing a state Budget.
For all their anger about infrastructure funding in the Budget, they are at least getting more money for roads in Victoria’s southeast and north that, whoever wins the election, the state won’t have to pay for.
The message coming from Pallas is that this will have to be a tough Budget, or at least tougher than his first four.
That’s hardly surprising, given the splurge-athon the government has embarked upon since 2015 and the current lull in the property market.
Money is running low for now, but there are expensive policies that have to be booked.
One of those is to fund 15 hours of kindergarten for three-year-olds, to be available to most parents, which over a decade will cost $5 billion. Shorten has promised to top up this plan if he is elected.
Even so, Victoria will be required to build a lot of preschools, hire a lot more teachers, and pump in a lot more resources.
This state Budget will require, as Pallas says, some difficult choices.
But the timing couldn’t be much better for Andrews and Pallas.
If there is some bad news — and we’re not talking about an austerity drive, just some fiddling at the edges — it will be unveiled during a federal election campaign that will by then be entering its final fortnight.
Cutbacks won’t be savage, because Pallas will be banking on the housing market eventually correcting itself, given that 100,000 extra people every year are calling metropolitan Melbourne home.
In the meantime, the government will happily get its hands dirty to try to sway the federal campaign towards its
Labor mates, hoping for a cheque in the mail later on so it can get back to spending big.
Matt Johnston is Herald sun state politics editor
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