Matt Johnston: Scathing Suburban Rail Loop review raises massive questions but will Premier listen?
Infrastructure Australia’s assessment of the Suburban Rail Loop is the bureaucratic equivalent of describing the Premier’s pet project as a mangy dog — but don’t expect Jacinta Allan to euthanise it.
Opinion
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The Suburban Rail Loop is sometimes described as Jacinta Allan’s pet project.
Infrastructure Australia’s assessment of the project, released on Friday, is the bureaucratic equivalent of describing that pet as a mangy dog.
It was always going to be a difficult task to pry $11.5bn from the Commonwealth for the first stage of the SRL, which is a rail line from Cheltenham to Box Hill.
Or as most people in regional Victoria or Melbourne’s north and west might ask, a line from where to where?
Infrastructure Australia’s assessment has made a difficult task close to unfeasible.
Its report cuts to shreds the flimsy SRL business case that was cobbled together by the state in 2020, justifying a project it had already promised to build in 2018.
Infrastructure Australia’s assessment says benefits are overcooked, costs are understated, and exit strategies should be created in case of emergency.
While this is ostensibly an assessment of whether the Commonwealth should cough up another $9.3bn or so for the project, it also raises massive questions about how another third of the project funding — from so-called value capture — can be raised.
Opponents of the SRL would say the assessment is a perfect excuse to kill off the project, but don’t expect Jacinta Allan to take their advice to euthanise.
She’s already inked contracts worth $5.3bn and spent about $2bn on early works, and has shown no signs of ditching her pricey pet, despite mounting bills.
Of course, a Commonwealth government could always ignore Infrastructure Australia’s advice, and shovel more cash out to Victoria.
That’s been done before.
At least if that happens this time, we will know clearly that the decision is not based on a nice set of economic numbers.
Instead, it would be a decision made purely on another set of numbers – political ones.
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