Matt Johnston: Population boom requires visionary policy
THE Bracks government predicted Melbourne’s population would reach 4.4 million by 2030 but last year our population surpassed that. Now the growing pains are inevitable and sometimes obvious, writes Matt Johnston.
Opinion
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ABOUT 15 years ago, the Bracks government in Victoria unveiled a major planning strategy called Melbourne 2030. It set a framework to manage an expected population and household boom, in a sustainable way.
The strategy’s “medium” growth projection had the city hitting about 4.4 million people by 2031, while the “high” growth forecast was for about 4.7 million people. Last year, at just past the halfway point of this long-term vision, our capital city’s population reached 4.8 million.
It will hit 5 million late this year.
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After Bracks, subsequent governments have created their own versions of Melbourne 2030, with the most recent iteration called Plan Melbourne 2017-2050.
It notes current growth is the “greatest population boom since the post-war era” and Victoria’s population will hit 10.1 million by 2050. Almost 8 million will live in the capital.
Hopefully, those projections don’t pass as quickly as those in Melbourne 2030.
This week’s state Budget appeared both a product and cause of rapid population growth.
Treasurer Tim Pallas was asked about the sustainability of the state’s expansion, which he said was growing by about 150,000 people a year. In response, he said the pace of change was mostly out of the state’s control.
“We don’t control the migration levels in this country,” he said.
“And I am certainly not toying with any tax around natural reproduction.”
Pallas’s Budget locked in policies on Tuesday that have added $9.4 billion to the bottom line in just one year.
While that level of increased public investment isn’t sustainable year on year, the government argues it is imperative for now.
If you don’t build schools, where will the kids of families who have moved here get an education? Without extra health spending, what does our ageing population do?
One of the politically clever plans is to make 30 TAFE courses free in areas where skills are short.
It enables the government to argue it is getting people ready for jobs that are coming because of the projects it’s building.
And people like free stuff.
Premier Daniel Andrews was asked by ABC Mornings presenter Jon Faine the day after his Budget was released: “Is there a vision for the future in your government’s agenda or are you running for re-election simply on the track record?”
Dan churned out his pet slogan, saying he was “getting things done” by building schools, hospitals and roads to provide jobs and this “sets us up for the future”.
Faine tried again, saying that building things brings in more taxes and people and enables you to build more, and the cycle goes on, but is there a vision beyond keeping pace with growth?
This is not an easy question to answer. Leaders who try often sound like they’re reciting lines from a political playbook, or hold something back for fear of sounding stupid.
Most just stick to sound bites.
Hopefully in the next six months, our state political parties will outline in more detail what this great state should look like beyond a Budget cycle.
I’ve said before that the concept the state Opposition tried to rally behind early this term — a population strategy that guides major policies from crime to roads or the environment — had potential. But it can be even harder for an Opposition to articulate a vision given its limited airtime.
The snarky world of social media has also made things worse.
Pallas and Andrews want to tell everyone this is a Budget “for the ’burbs and regions”. Politically, they need to win seats in those areas to get another four years.
So does the Coalition.
There has been a big increase in spending in those areas, where a lot of people are acutely aware of population increases as they drive to their relative’s house or struggle to get childcare places.
Of course, a bigger population doesn’t mean a worse living experience. And compared to other major cities, we are a baby.
But growing pains are inevitable and sometimes obvious.
For this reason, a lot of people in the so-called ’burbs struggle to comprehend how Melbourne has remained top of the tree in the Global Liveability Report, despite swelling to 4.8 million people.
Of the other top 10 cities, none have more than 3 million people, and only Vancouver and Toronto house more than 2 million people.
At times on Tuesday, the Treasurer gave the impression of going helter-skelter down a hill in a go-kart, hoping the brakes don’t fail.
At one stage, he talked about tapping the brakes, by “spreading the economic activity” in Victoria.
In other words, try to control migration within the state even though you can’t control it from the outside.
A payroll tax cut for regional Victoria was one example Pallas used. Such incentives need to get bigger and bolder as we hurtle towards 2030.
Matthew Johnston is state politics editor
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