Matt Johnston: Chairman Daniel Andrews not wasting any time
With the “Danslide” tucked in his back pocket after a huge state election victory, this term will show us the extent of Premier Daniel Andrews’ ambition, writes Matt Johnston.
Opinion
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During a frenetic first term, the Andrews Government had a slender but workable majority in the state parliament’s Lower House. In the Upper House, where its legislative agenda was reviewed, it held only 14 of 40 seats and had to scrounge to get Bills passed.
This did not stop Daniel Andrews attempting — and often succeeding — to make profound social changes. He introduced the state’s first voluntary euthanasia laws, the first gay pride centre and trialled the first heroin-injecting room.
Some Labor MPs questioned at various times whether the government was taking too many risks. Last month’s “Danslide” election result should silence doubters. But will it also embolden Andrews to go even further?
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Having twice as many seats in the Lower House as the state Opposition is a big deal for Labor, but just as significant is the result in the Upper House.
There, it is a bee’s appendage from a majority and, through some Left-leaning friendlies likely to pick up seats, will effectively have a working majority in both houses on many issues.
At the same time, the Coalition is in turmoil. It will be led by the capable and hardworking Michael O’Brien, but is likely to end up with only 35 of 128 seats in parliament.
One of those is Bernie Finn who, when asked about getting more Liberal women into state parliament, said: “If the Labor Party and the Greens want to have more women in the Liberal Party, what they should have done is not defeat them.”
Andrews says to the cameras he won’t “waste a day” this term and behind the scenes his actions are equally emphatic.
His changes to Cabinet were authoritative and sent a powerful message. Outside of his trusty Treasurer Tim Pallas, most Right-wing ministers were downgraded or shifted to roles that are challenging or will keep them so busy they’re out of trouble.
Luke Donnellan, who would be able to get future PM Bill Shorten on the phone quicker than anyone else in Cabinet, was punted to child protection.
Ben Carroll will tackle youth justice and corrections with gusto, but will be lucky to avoid getting some nasty bruises. One Labor wag says that’s what you get when you’re mentioned in dispatches as a future leader.
Dan made a deal last term to bring Adem Somyurek back to Cabinet, but the powerbroker’s ally, Robin Scott, has been stripped of most of his portfolios.
Changes on the Left are also meaningful. One big appointment is Jill Hennessy into the role of Attorney-General.
How Hennessy, who is whip-smart but was accused by some ABC viewers of excessive “gloating” on election night, approaches the role will be watched closely.
So will her appointments to the bench.
Other changes are subtle — or perhaps they are just conspiracy theories. Reports emerged last year of a phase-out of native timber logging being planned.
The most vocal supporters of the industry in Cabinet were Small Business Minister Philip Dalidakis and Jaala Pulford as Agriculture Minister.
Pulford is now Roads Minister and Dalidakis was turfed from Cabinet, leading some to think it’s time to say “timber!” to native logging.
Other major shifts are in the public service, where several senior appointments are described as “Dan people” from the Department of Premier and Cabinet.
It is a powerful, commanding restructure that shows exactly who is boss. One minister said: “Can you blame him? He’s just won a second term with a massive majority.”
Another said that the leadership group would have an ongoing task to ensure the Premier didn’t become “Dictator Dan”.
One MP said Cabinet changes were brutally effective but might also trigger the Right “getting their s--- together” and being more organised. (How many times have we heard that?) That may be wishful thinking while the Premier is riding an electoral high, joined by a cavalry of unexpected young backbenchers who are on board with their dear leader’s mission.
Of course, a big shift in Victoria looms when (it’s not even an “if” at the moment) Bill Shorten and the federal Labor Party win power next year.
State and federal Labor playing together could end in tears. It would also enable the Victorian Liberals to free themselves from the shackles of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years — although whether the majority of the party room is capable or willing to set a bold new direction is questionable. It will have to counter the “big build” rhetoric from Labor, on which many voters gave the government a pass mark at the election.
LABOR consciously adjusted the Premier’s image halfway through last term, steering him clear of most press events other than the ones requiring a hard-hat for entry or that were in the safe space of health and education.
One of the Premier’s most significant (and clever) announcements towards the end of his first term was the royal commission into mental health.
That review will help Labor, as the family violence royal commission did last term, to frame public policy narratives.
It will look at issues that affect the old, the young, the new parent and the struggling worker.
From that will flow the Andrews Government’s next big social reforms.
That could include the areas of drug regulation, housing, or family welfare. And it will also be the way the Premier and his team try to shift the law-and-order debate from the punitive to the preventive.
Matt Johnston is state politics editor
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