Matt Johnston: $2.2b Rail Loop investment could be risky business for Daniel Andrews

An investment case on whether Suburban Rail Loop is worth building hasn’t been finalised. So what happens if doesn't stack up? Well, you can almost bet, it’ll go ahead anyway, writes Matt Johnston.

Daniel Andrews has announced a $2.2 billion cash injection to the Suburban Rail Loop ahead of next week’s state budget. Render of platform

Dan Andrews loves a big number when it comes to infrastructure.

Nothing makes the Premier chirpier than record-breaking road and rail spending.

So it was hard to wipe the grin off his face when announcing a whopping $2.2 billion of taxpayer cash would be committed to “early works” for a new Suburban Rail Loop.

When announcing this incredible figure – for early works, not actual tunnelling or station building – he was keen to reassure voters the project was no longer just a line on a map.

“This project is real,” he said.

The implication was that until now, people might have thought it was fantasy.

And it’s easy to understand why.

When Andrews announced he wanted to build the 90km loop, from Cheltenham to Werribee, it was on the eve of a state election in 2018.

There was no involvement from Infrastructure Victoria, which Andrews had created to “take the politics out of infrastructure”, or from leading transport experts.

There wasn’t even a real cost attached.

Premier Daniel Andrews seems committed to the project despite no investment case . Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Geraghty

In fact, there still isn’t.

Nevertheless, hundreds of millions of dollars have been shovelled out the door to make the loop a reality.

At least the Premier has now started to explain the real rationale for the mega-project, which will start with “stage one” from Southland Station in Cheltenham to Box Hill in Melbourne’s east.

The project will help connect economic activity centres such as major universities and employment zones to a quick and efficient London tube-style system, while building up around suburban transport hubs.

An investment case won’t be finished until next year to show us what this tunnel is worth, and whether it’s really worth building in the scheme of other transport options.

Let’s hope most of the $2.2bn won’t be spent by then, just in case it’s not a worthy investment.

Hundreds of millions of dollars have been shovelled out the door to make the loop a reality.

We’re just starting to see the real cost of poorly constructed contracts on major projects entered into by this government in its rush to get road and rail out the door in the aftermath of the East West Link cancellation.

There will be billions of dollars in overruns on the West Gate Tunnel and the Melbourne Metro rail tunnel.

And we haven’t even started the most expensive road the state has ever seen, the $15.8bn North East Link.

The East West Link was dumped because it didn’t stack up, Andrews said in 2014.

What happens if the Suburban Rail Loop doesn’t stack up?

By the sounds of it, we’ll press on regardless because Dan promised it would be built at an election.

“This is no longer a concept, this is happening, this is real. And why? Because it’s exactly what we said we would do,” he said today.

Once he starts digging a hole, Dan doesn’t like to stop.

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