Shannon Deery: Victorian Labor could be headed for a minority government as voters seek third choice

These three parties could hold more sway in Victoria, with the upcoming state election to see politics done in Victoria like never before.

An exodus from the major parties would change the way politics is conducted in this state.

The trend has been evident in polling for close to a year, and the federal election hammered home the point.

The primary vote for the two parties fell to just 67.2 per cent, down 6.2 per cent for the Coalition and 1.4 per cent for the ALP on the previous election.

In contrast, every other party increased their primary vote.

Voters want a choice aside from Labor or Liberal, with many in the community feeling neither party properly represents them.

It’s expected there will be an exodus from the major parties at the November state election. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

Which is why the 72 per cent of first votes shared by the major parties in the 2018 Victorian election is unlikely to be repeated come November.

What’s more likely is that voters turn to the minor parties, independents and strong local candidates in record numbers.

And it’s that trend that the new Victorians Party, the teals, and the Greens could exploit.

The Victorians Party plans to run candidates in all 88 lower house seats, and believes strong local candidates will cause massive swings in vulnerable seats.

Think seats such as Melton and Werribee, where the ALP already suffered strong swings in 2018. It also has high hopes for seats including Point Cook and Kororoit where Labor has parachuted in favoured candidates.

The teals look set to run in a handful of seats, predominantly held by the Liberals, and the Greens look set to increase their three lower house seats.

Pollsters believe the party could have an impact.

And they point to NSW independent Dai Le who overturned Labor’s 14 per cent margin in the Sydney seat of Fowler to defeat Kristina Keneally at the federal election.

In Werribee, in 2018, local doctor Joe Garra ran an underfunded campaign and collected a staggering 19 per cent of the primary vote.

A properly resourced campaign could see seats such as Werribee, despite Labor’s strong hold on the electorate, fall.

Sources close to the party suggest the campaign could be funded with a multimillion-dollar backing.

Greens leader Samantha Ratnam with Reason Party leader Fiona Patten. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

But that is not the only headache for Daniel Andrews and the ALP.

How the Victorians Party and others choose to direct preferences in key seats will also have an impact.

It could help the Liberals in a big way, but for that to happen they will need to push their primary vote right up, and it’s currently heading south.

On current predictions, Labor could be headed for a minority government.

Andrews has previously, and repeatedly, ruled out a minority government deal with the Greens.

But under the potential new-look parliament he would be forced to work with either the Greens, teals or the Victorians Party to get anything done.

And it could see politics done in Victoria like never before.