James Campbell: Why Mikakos’ best was not good enough for Daniel Andrews
Nobody thinks Jenny Mikakos was really in charge of the hotel quarantine program but everyone in Spring St thinks she was a loyal servant of the Labor Party and loyal to Daniel Andrews. So the casual way she was pushed under the train was a shock, writes James Campbell.
James Campbell
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It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Jenny Mikakos.
Nobody thinks she was really in charge of the hotel quarantine program. Nobody thinks she was responsible for the decision to use private security guards. Was she a good minister? Reports are mixed, to put it politely. Some think she was doing her best in difficult circumstances.
Many of them will concede her best wasn’t good enough.
What everyone at Spring St agrees on is that she was a loyal servant of the Labor Party and personally loyal to her leader Daniel Andrews.
Which is why the casual way he pushed her under the train on Friday has shocked the people who don’t know our Premier very well.
Those who have observed him at close quarters were less surprised, with the possible exception of top bureaucrat Chris Eccles, who is said to be feeling very bruised at the equally casual way Andrews treated him in his evidence.
The least surprised at Mikakos’ fate were those who had a chance to witness her interactions with the Premier since the pandemic began.
She found out the hard way trying to please Daniel Andrews doesn’t win you his affection, only his contempt.
Her friends will be angry on her behalf but, as one Labor veteran joked on Saturday, while she does have friends, “they’re not very powerful ones”.
Mikakos’ fall illustrates something else that has been clear throughout Andrews’ time as leader, his ruthlessness means that whenever he is under pressure he is always able to find another gear.
The Coate Inquiry hasn’t cleared up who came up with the idea of hotel quarantine, but as witness after witness has declined to take responsibility, it has become clear this government is populated by people who are simply there to implement decisions, which magically appear from above.
They have been reduced to ciphers. Are we to believe these people are suddenly going to grow spines?
Well, maybe. In normal times you could say with certainty that Mikakos’ fall would not have any wider repercussions.
But these are not normal times. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and the sharpest contraction of the economy since the Great Depression.
Anyone with any sense of history knows that in these circumstances things can quickly turn very nasty for incumbent governments — even ones with majorities as big as this one has.
There is also the way we are being governed at present, with parliament barely sitting, and cabinet government suspended along with the governing mechanisms of the Victorian ALP.
Most of the cabinet and all of the backbench feel they’ve been sidelined, which is raising emotional temperatures inside the government.
Then there’s the feedback Labor MPs have been getting from the public. Forget about the #istandwithdan brigade on Twitter, the feedback in the electorate offices has been dreadful.
The inescapable conclusion from talking to Labor MPs and people who talk to Labor MPs is that, as the second wave has dragged on, more and more of them want him gone.
You can tell this from the way they talk about the likelihood of him making a quick departure as soon as the present crisis has passed.
In August I wrote that Andrews must know in his heart of hearts that there was no getting out from under this, some disasters are just too big.
Indeed, his repeated statements around that time that he would accept ultimate responsibility for the disaster seemed to suggest that he was preparing to fall on his sword.
But the Daniel Andrews that fronted the Coate Inquiry on Friday didn’t look like he was going anywhere.
Indeed, as the hearing wore on and it became clear to him that Rachel Ellyard is no Rachel Doyle, his face relaxed.
He has seemed happier at his press conferences, too. He’s certainly untroubled by most of the questions.
Maybe he’s decided this is survivable — after all, there’s still two years to go until the next election.
A vaccine is probably going to arrive sometime next year. Sure the Victorian economy is in a horrible state as is the government’s tax base, but he does have a $24.5bn credit “facility” to spend, which has every private equity spiv in Sydney drooling.
The political wind from Canberra is blowing his way, too. On Monday JobKeeper begins to wind down, which, while it will be a massive hit to the Victorian economy, will allow him to bash the Morrison government.
As the restrictions begin to lift, hang on for spending announcements designed to shock and awe us with their vision for Victoria’s future.
In other words, he might, contrary to the expectations of most political observers, be betting he can emerge from this crisis stronger.
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