James Campbell: Virus battle now a case of us against them
No one was expecting things to snap back to normal in Victoria this month but the draft roadmap out of lockdown has exposed a frightening gap between Victorians and their government, writes James Campbell.
James Campbell
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What really terrifies business folk about the draft road map revealed by the Herald Sun on Thursday is what it shows about the mindset of the decision makers in Victoria.
No one was expecting things to snap back to normal later this month.
But until now, many hadn’t fully grasped the size of the gap between them and the government.
In the private sector it is almost universally understood that if we go on like this it won’t be a 1990s-style recession but an 1890s recession –— the one that knocked Melbourne off its perch as the leading city in the nation.
On the plus side, Daniel Andrews said the document was out of date and had no status. But senior government sources made it clear that’s where their thinking was on Wednesday night.
As we are discovering, there’s a difference between a long daily press conference and a long daily press conference where the Premier actually answers the questions.
We are told the government is being guided by science. But we have to take this on trust.
Unlike the British, we’re not being given access to the computer code that is deciding our fate.
What we can see is there is essentially no change to the economy under the mooted stage three-PLUS.
There won’t be any change to retail or hospitality. The real estate market will effectively remain closed, as will bars, hotels, and cinemas.
The only upside is more exercise, including going to the pool as well as meeting up with five people outside our homes. And some kids will go back to school.
In all other respects, Melbourne will essentially remain closed for business. For how long? Who can say? It could be indefinitely.
We are a very long way indeed from being anywhere near the threshold for stage two. That would require us to be seeing only an average of five cases a day. At the moment we’re still averaging more than a 100 a day.
The Premier was at pains to stress on Thursday the government remains wedded to a suppression, rather than an elimination strategy. But if what is allowed on Sunday looks anything like this, that claim will have been exposed as a lie.
It will also make it clear Victoria’s approach to this virus bears no relationship to the rest of Australia’s.
Under this plan, NSW would presently be on stage three-PLUS; instead, they’re at something that looks a bit like stage two with one massive difference.
In NSW, you can have up to 20 people visit your home.
If we ever get to stage two here, all we will be allowed to do is have five visitors from one nominated household.
The threshold for leaving that stage to what the Premier likes to call “COVID normal” is 14 days with no cases at all.
How much of Victoria’s economy will be left by that time is an interesting question, as is the question of how many people will flee the moment the borders are reopened.