James Campbell: Pollies playing a game of Chinese whispers
The government and opposition want to talk about China, but neither — quite — has the courage to say what they mean, writes James Campbell.
James Campbell
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One of the depressing things about the Canberra circus is the way in which disagreements must be manufactured where, in reality, both sides are more or less on the same page.
Take foreign affairs. On Tuesday Anthony Albanese was on Sky News having a crack at Scott Morrison over his statements in the US in which he appeared to back Donald Trump’s hard line on China.
Speaking in Chicago, the PM said that while China’s economic growth was welcomed by Australia, and that “we recognise the economic maturity that it has now realised as a newly developed economy,” having achieved this status “it is important that China’s trade arrangements … reflect this new status and the responsibilities that go with it as a very major world power”.
Speaking to reporters afterwards, the PM explained that “as nations progress and develop, then the obligations and how the rules apply to them also shift”. Morrison appeared to be suggesting Australia backs the US position that, given the size of its economy, it is time the WTO ended the concessions that China receives as a developing economy.
Although the PM has said similar things before, Albanese attacked the appropriateness of saying them in America, telling David Speers, “it is difficult to see how it advances the cause of reducing tension between the United States and China where Australia, as allies of the United States, but as a country that has China as our most important economic partner; should be playing a role in reducing that tension”.
In part, Albanese’s objection was that “it very difficult to see how that will be received in any positive way by China and therefore how it will reduce that trade tension between US and China which is not in Australia’s national interest”.
But he also seemed to be rejecting that China is a developed country, saying that while it is home to “just about one in four of the world’s population” it doesn’t have “25 per cent of the world’s economy”.
But then he added that “the way that you change its status to a developed nation isn’t by giving a speech as an Australian leader in the United States which is involved in a tense trade relationship at the moment with China” — suggesting it was not the aim he objected to but the way Morrison went about it.
Confused? I don’t blame you. From those statements it would appear the government was hinting it thinks China’s status at the WTO needs to be changed but won’t quite say so, while the opposition was hinting that it disagrees but isn’t quite prepared to say so.
Things didn’t get any clearer as the week went on. On Wednesday Trade Minister Simon Birmingham popped up on the ABC and was asked by Hamish MacDonald if he had told the Chinese government: “You are no longer developing, you are now developed” when he was in Beijing recently.
Sensing the danger, Birmingham offered waffle with a side of fudge: “Well Hamish, those words were also not used by Scott Morrison either. What he did say was that their growth has been immense, that clearly they are no longer the country that they were when they acceded to the WTO a number of years ago and that we ought to see changes that reflect their development. That doesn’t say that we are getting into a binary debate about whether somebody is developed or developing, there’s clearly a spectrum there …. They have absolutely been on a path of development; they have developed a long way from where they were.
Of course, they are not as prosperous as some other nations, but we ought to see engagement that reflects, in the case of China, as in the case of many other nations that have grown significantly over recent years, engagement that reflects their new development status.”
Birmingham’s fudgy waffle was seized upon by his opposite number Madeleine King with a press release headed GOVERNMENT IS ALL OVER THE SHOP ON CHINA. “The government,” she thundered “has failed to follow its own advice about the need for deep thought and consideration in ensuring good relations with both US and China”.
But then King appeared to break with her leader’s view a day earlier, saying “it’s reasonable to recognise that China’s economy has changed enormously and that has helped millions out of poverty and been of benefit to Australia as well” and that it is “is also reasonable to seek to reform the WTO to reflect the modern realities of the global trading system.”
Her problem was not what was said, but where Morrison chose to say it.
“It is one thing to propound an idea from Australia or even other carefully selected capitals,” she explained, “but doing so in the US and so soon after meeting President Trump has ensured China will dismiss it out of hand.”
The reference to “other carefully selected capitals” was intriguing. Perhaps she was referring to Penny Wong’s speech in Jakarta on Tuesday in which Labor’s Foreign Affairs spokeswoman said: “It is apparent, for example, that some aspects of the WTO’s structures, rules and standards no longer reflect the world’s economic realities” and that “Australia and Indonesia can draw on our shared interests and experiences to work to ensure the WTO remains fit for purpose”.
James Campbell is national politics editor.
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