James Campbell: Perspective helps looking at Wentworth by-election result

BEFORE we all get too carried away about implications of this result there are a few things to keep in mind, writes James Campbell.

BEFORE we all get too carried away about implications of this result there are a few things to keep in mind.

The first is that Wentworth is a seat like no other. Anyone trying to claim that where Vaucluse and Double Bay go so goes the rest of Australia should be given short shrift.

The second is that as bad as this is for the Liberal Party it’s not unprecedented. In 1992 at the by-election after Bob Hawke was axed for Paul Keating the Labor Party lost the former PM’s seat of Wills to the independent, Phil Cleary, with a swing of 23 per cent but still went on to win the next election.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison at Kirribilli House yesterday. Picture: David Swift

Compared to that effort the 18 per cent swing against the Government on Saturday was a triumph, though whether Scott Morrison is a Keating remains to be seen.

The third thing to remember is that given Malcolm Turnbull was their popular local member it’s not surprising Wentworth folk took his axing badly just as the people of Wills took it badly when Hawkie was chopped.

Lastly, while the government has lost its majority it’s not in mortal peril of being forced to an early election. Not now anyway.

But that said, this was still a disaster for any number of reasons, starting with the fact it shows that the Liberal Party can no longer be absolutely certain it will always hang on to what we once used to call its heartland.

Independent candident Dr Kerryn Phelps arrives victorious at the North Bondi Surf Lifesaving Club on Saturday night. Picture: Getty Images

Wentworth might not be much like the most of Australia but it’s not that dissimilar to Higgins and Kooyong in Victoria.

If it can go, on a bad day so could those two Liberal jewels.

Now you can debate all you like about exactly how much these voters really care about climate change and refugees but after Saturday you no longer claim that giving two fingers to these concerns to win votes in suburbia and the regions is always a cost-free exercise for the Liberal Party. Welcome to the world the Labor Party has been living in for the last decade!

The last thing the Government needs now is a fight over legislation that would give religious organisations the right discriminate against gay people, not least because the election of one more gay MP makes it even less likely any such legislation will pass the lower house.

Alas it looks like that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

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