James Campbell: Liberal’s ability to resolve gay marriage question now hostage to High Court

THE Liberal Party’s ability to resolve the question of gay marriage before the next election is now hostage to the High Court, writes James Campbell.

The Liberal Party’s ability to resolve the question of gay marriage before the next election is now hostage to the High Court. Generic picture

• Emergency meeting: Outrage over Lib’s gay marriage call

THE Liberal Party’s ability to resolve the question of gay marriage before the next election is now hostage to the High Court, and the willingness of reform advocates to play ball with its voluntary postal vote plan.

An overwhelming majority of Liberal MPs have decided to stick for now with Tony Abbott’s plebiscite plan which Malcolm Turnbull took to last year’s federal election.

The mood of the meeting — untested by a vote on Monday — was to back a Cabinet plan to move to a postal vote if the Senate, as expected, once again rejects the plebiscite proper.

The idea of holding a non-compulsory, non-attendance postal vote was, until only a few days ago, widely regarded as having fringe appeal inside the party room.

That changed when it became clear it was being backed by the Prime Minister and his two most senior Right-wing ministers, Mathias Cormann and Peter Dutton.

The plan is fraught with risks, starting with the fact that opponents outside parliament will move immediately to try to block it in the High Court.

Even some Liberal MPs who are prepared to go along with the plan believe it is “highly vulnerable” to such a challenge.

And if the court finds it is unlawful, where does that leave the government? Will the pro-gay-marriage forces in the party then feel free to push on with their plan for a Private Member’s Bill — even it means defying the will of the overwhelming majority of their colleagues?

Even if the High Court allows the postal vote to go ahead, what legitimacy will any result have if gay marriage advocates, the Labor Party and the Greens urge people to boycott it?

The Labor Party hasn’t said what its position will be, but it is hard to see it going along with a Clayton’s non-compulsory postal vote after having twice voted against a plebiscite proper in the Senate.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: AAP/Richard Wainwright

Opposition leader Bill Shorten. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas

If the postal vote returns a “yes” result, the government will introduce a Bill in parliament within months, which would almost certainly see its passage into legislation. But not before Australians are treated to the sight of a bunch of Liberal MPs who advocated for their having a say voting against the outcome.

Whatever happens, gay marriage is going to be front and centre of political debate in this country for weeks, if not months. Bill Shorten can hardly believe his luck.