James Campbell: Daniel Andrews’ road map out of restrictions will leave the economy in tatters
The leaked road map out of lockdown paints a depressing picture for businesses, leaving Victorians wondering if there will even be an economy left by the time Daniel Andrews decides we can open up, writes James Campbell.
James Campbell
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Daniel Andrews says the Herald Sun’s leaked draft of his government’s plan for the next few months is out of date and has no status.
So we might be pleasantly surprised on Sunday to find he has seen sense.
But senior government sources made it clear on Wednesday evening it’s more or less where their thinking was at.
It also accords with what business folk say has been the message they have been picking up in the limited “consultations” they have been afforded in the past few days.
That message is simple: the economy is not really on the state government’s radar.
The only difference between the current disaster and the proposal to move to Stage 3 PLUS would be addition of “some permitted industries”.
There won’t be any change to retail or hospitality.
The real estate market will effectively remain closed.
Bars, hotels, theatres, cinemas – all closed.
The only upside is we might be able to exercise more, including going to the pool as well as meeting up with five people outside our homes.
Oh, and some kids will get to go back to school.
Under this scenario Melbourne will remain closed for business.
For how long? Who can say?
It isn’t impossible the answer is indefinitely.
Because we are very long way indeed from being anywhere the threshold to get to Stage 2.
That would require us to be seeing only five cases over a seven day average with no more than three of them coming from community transmission.
At the moment we’re still averaging more than a hundred cases a day.
The Premier was at pains to stress on Thursday the government remains wedded to a suppression, rather than an elimination strategy.
But if what is allowed on Sunday looks anything like this, that claim will have been exposed as a lie.
It will also make it clear that Victoria’s approach to this virus bears absolutely no relationship to the rest of Australia’s.
Under this plan NSW would presently be on Stage 3 PLUS, instead, they’re at something that looks a bit like Stage 2 with one massive difference.
In NSW you can currently have up to 20 people visit your home.
If we ever get to Stage 2 here, all we will be allowed to do is have five visitors from one nominated household.
The threshold for leaving that stage to what the Premier likes to call “COVID normal” is 14 days with no cases at all.
How likely is that? And how much of Victoria’s economy will be left by the time we get there?
Interesting questions to ponder along with another: how many people will flee the moment the borders are reopened?
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