Grim poll forecast means East West Link risk worth taking

Desperate times call for desperate measures — and the East West Link is a vote shifter with a “wow” factor that a bunch of basketball courts and railway station carparks don’t have. It’s a risk worth taking, writes James Campbell.

There are no safe seats in Victoria.

This is the message being broadcast by panicked Liberal Party officials.

It doesn’t mean Labor is definitely going to take everything on the table in the state that back in the dream time was regarded as the jewel in the Liberals’ crown.

LIBERALS PLAN TO BANKROLL EAST WEST LINK TO SAVE MPS

SHORTEN SLAMS PM OVER ‘DEAD EAST WEST LINK

But it does mean that on a bad day just about everything bar Wannon in the state’s west and Monash — formerly McMillan — could be in play.

Indeed, there’s a guessing game going on among Liberals: “Where do you think the carnage will stop?”

Everybody bar the candidates admits in private that Corangamite, Dunkley, Chisholm and La Trobe are cooked.

Opinions differ about the prospects of Michael Sukkar in Deakin, Tony Smith in Casey and Alan Tudge in Aston.

Of the three, Tudge is considered the most likely to get home, but if the swing is on in suburbia he could be washed away with the others.

Opinions differ about the prospects of Michael Sukkar in Deakin. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas

Aston federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge. Picture: AAP/Rob Blakers

Then there’s Kevin Andrews in Menzies. The AEC has given him a bad redistribution with much of the state Labor-voting seat of Eltham now in his patch.

He’s going to get a haircut, no doubt about it.

So is Greg Hunt down in the Mornington Peninsula seat of Flinders, who is behind in the published polling and has GetUp! coming for him over his role in last August’s Peter-Dutton-for-PM fiasco.

If that hadn’t happened and Malcolm Turnbull was still PM, we wouldn’t be talking about the Liberals’ prospects in their heartland seats of Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein either. But it did, and we are.

Of the three, Higgins is in the worst shape. But all suffered unprecedented swings at the state poll in November, and would be lineball if that is repeated.

Health Minister Greg Hun is behind in published polling and has GetUp! coming for him. Picture: Alan Barber

In short, the Liberals are in the unprecedented predicament of having a fight on their hands in 12 of the 14 Victorian seats they won at the 2016 election, a position for which they are wholly unprepared.

Desperate times call for desperate measures which is why a number of MPs — led by Sukkar — are pushing for Scott Morrison to promise that if he’s re-elected he’ll pay for the East West Link, lock, stock and barrel.

At present the Prime Minister says he has $3 billion for that link, which Bill Shorten is calling on him to hand over to other projects — i.e. projects for which state Labor leader Daniel Andrews can get the credit.

A 2014 artist impression of the western portal on the East West Link, which Liberal research shows is still popular

If Morrison sticks to his guns this will be Labor’s line until election day. But if he adds another $1 billion to the pile he’s got nice wedge issue.

After what he said on Thursday, Shorten can’t turn around and match the offer. And despite claims the matter is settled, it actually put Andrews on a hotspot too, since his argument against it has always been that EWL doesn’t stack up financially.

If the feds are paying: problem solved.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speak to the media during a press conference at Sunshine Train Station in Melbourne, Wednesday, March 13, 2018. A long-awaited rail link to Melbourne airport edging closer to reality, with the prime minister and Victorian premier pledging a combined $10 billion in funding. (AAP Image/Stefan Postles) NO ARCHIVING

And as Liberals’ research shows, EWL is still popular and is just about the only infrastructure project in which they have any equity.

It’s a vote shifter and would have a “wow” factor that a bunch of basketball courts and railway station carparks will not.

Which isn’t to say small local announcements can’t work. They can. But you need a machine on the ground to sell them.

The Liberal Party is fighting on too many fronts and doesn’t have the cattle. It’s a risk worth taking.

[e-mail]