Daniel Andrews might not be the man to lead Labor to next election
With the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic unravelling, Labor MPs are quietly talking about whether Dan Andrews is the right person to take them to the next election, writes James Campbell.
James Campbell
Don't miss out on the headlines from James Campbell. Followed categories will be added to My News.
By the time next state election rolls around in 2022, Daniel Andrews will have been Victorian leader of the ALP for 12 years — eight of them as Premier.
If he’s still there, that is.
For the past year, Spring Street observers have been divided between those who think Andrews plans to be in his job for the long haul and those who think he has no intention of leading Labor at the next state election.
Until now, the assumption was it would be Andrews who decided whether he stays or goes. But as the Victorian government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has publicly unravelled in the past two weeks, Labor MPs are starting to quietly talk about whether they might stand a better chance of holding office under another leader.
On the face of it, such talk shouldn’t be happening.
According to Newspoll, Victorians remain overwhelmingly satisfied with the way Andrews is doing his job.
But when you talk to Labor MPs, a different picture emerges.
The general view in Spring Street is that Andrews’ 2018 election win was a belting on the scale of the walloping Steve Bracks handed Robert Doyle in 2002.
But as one MP said this week, the result was actually much closer to Bracks’ 2006 victory over Ted Baillieu, who went on to beat John Brumby four years later.
One MP said there was a real division in the Labor caucus between the “Class of 2018” MPs elected in that year’s landslide and those who have been around for a while and know things can turn very quickly.
One veteran minister is in no doubt that Labor could lose in two years’ time, given the state of the economy.
And with two inquires — one state and one federal — into the handling of hotel quarantine, there is a good chance the government will wear the blame for the economic carnage being wrought by the second lockdown.
As to which ministers will end up wearing the blame, you can take your pick.
A lot of fingers are pointing at Martin Pakula, the Minister for Tourism, Sport and Major Events. His department had the job of securing the hotels and contracting security guards.
How many of them are pointing at him because he is regarded as a viable leadership contender from the Right of the Labor Party is hard to say.
Pakula’s defenders say procurement was where his responsibilities ended. After that, the management of quarantine was the job of Department of Health and Human Services under Health Minister Jenny Mikakos.
They say if anyone has cocked things up, it is DHHS. Its contact tracing in ethnic communities has been woefully inadequate.
Things have been complicated, insiders say, by the fact that, by all accounts, Mikakos and Lisa Neville, the Police and Emergency Services Minister, can’t stand each other.
Neville has made it clear she thinks it was a mistake putting DHHS in charge, and that in her opinion the crisis would have been better managed by Emergency Management Victoria under the firm leadership of its minister (L. Neville).
Neville, too, might see herself as a leadership contender from the Right.
The Socialist Left divides between those who want Transport Minister Jacinta Allan to take over if Andrews leaves and those who want the Attorney-General, Jill Hennessy.
The general view is Allan would start as favourite — not least because she is expected to have Andrews’ support to replace him, but principally because the Jill-For-Leader push doesn’t seem to extend much beyond people who don’t want the next premier to be Jacinta Allan
The increasing view across the government is that Andrews wants to leave and will do so as soon as the present crisis is over.
One of them even speculates that by constantly reiterating that the buck stops with him, Andrews is giving himself a reason to go if the quarantine inquiry ends up slamming the government.