James Campbell: Albo not going anywhere but can the government recover?

You know a government is in trouble when its members start pinning their hopes on a belief the other guy is unelectable, James Campbell writes.

Back in May when the PM was flying high in the aftermath of a good-time budget, the question on everyone’s lips in Canberra was: would there be an election some time this year?

Three months later, no one thinks we’ll be going to the polls this year and the question on everyone’s lips is a very different one: can the government recover or is it terminal?

The quickest way to find out how nervous Liberal Party officials and MPs are at the moment is to casually drop into conversation the suggestion Labor might be about to get rid of Anthony Albanese.

Reactions invariably go something like this: “Really? I can’t see them doing that. No. Seriously? Do you think they will? Really?”

Followed after a short pause by: “Surely not before the election?”

You know a government is in trouble when its members start pinning their hopes on a belief the other guy is unelectable.

Over the past few months I’ve been lucky to watch a number of focus groups of voters around the country as the Covid situation has deteriorated.

Labor leader Anthony and Albanese and Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Gary Ramage/Getty

The same things have come up repeatedly.

The first is strong support for the premiers, who are seen as having done their best in a difficult situation.

The second is that this difficult situation has been made worse by the bungled vaccine rollout.

The third is a complete lack of interest in anything Anthony Albanese has to say.

If what I’ve seen is representative, people are pissed off with Morrison but he is still a good chance to be returned next year because this guy just isn’t on people’s radar.

But there was a moment a few weeks ago in a group of voters in southwest and Western Sydney that would have given pause for thought if I was a Liberal strategist.

Asked if they thought this government had a plan for Australia’s post-pandemic future, the entire group laughed.

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Now I wouldn’t claim to be an expert on these things.

Perhaps this is situation normal.

Perhaps laughter is the logical and usual response when Australians are asked if their leaders have a vision for the country’s future.

But if this is an unusual response, this eight-years-old government could be in a bit of strife next year, if Labor can get its act together.

In the meantime Morrison slogs on, fronting up every Friday afternoon to explain the decisions that have been taken by the premiers in that day’s national cabinet. Presumably these occasions are meant to give us the impression he is in charge. If that’s the case, they’re not working.

Two weeks ago among the burning issues of the day considered by the nation’s leaders was the question of when it is OK for bosses to force their workers to get a jab.

What guidance would be issued when they emerged! What would they decide?

The answers were none and nothing.

Apparently all that happened was they sat around and listened to the Solicitor-General give his legal opinion which could be boiled down to: it’s complicated.

Or as Morrison put it: “the advice makes clear that there are matters regarding discrimination law and a reasonableness of any direction made to an employee, and that reasonableness goes over four tiers. And, all of this is explained through the Fair Work advice, which is available on the Fair Work website to assist employers. But, ultimately, employers need to consider these matters and make their own decisions.”

Anthony Albanese during Question Time in the House of Representatives in Parliament House Canberra on August 12. Picture: Gary Ramage

Seriously, the best he could come with was good luck and check the website?

Australia, he went on, does not have a mandatory vaccination policy “but, an employer may wish to make a reasonable directive to staff, and if they do so, they would need to do so consistent with the law.”

Listening to this you could almost be forgiven for forgetting for a second that the laws he was discussing are not written on stone but can be changed by the men and women in the meeting he had just left.

He returned to the subject again last Friday, after National Cabinet discussed what might happen if an employee brings a case against their boss under state workplace health and safety laws because they became sick as a result of Covid picked up in a workplace with no mandatory vaccine requirement.

Again there was advice but no decision: “I was able to advise that the advice I have received is that workplace health and safety regulators in the states can provide a statement of regulation intent that a business that does not mandate is not in breach of workplace health and safety laws. So, a protection can be provided to businesses through that process that may be concerned that by not putting in a mandatory requirement that they might otherwise be liable for any action that might be brought against them.”

Scott Morrison during Sunday morning’s press conference on the new Pfizer doses. Picture: Gary Ramage

Really? Health and safety bureaucrats can just issue regulations that put a magic asterisk at the top of state legislation leading to a footnote that says “this doesn’t apply to Covid”?

I reckon there might be some learned friends out there who are prepared to test that.

But leaving that aside, shouldn’t the federal government – which is in charge of the vaccine program – take some responsibility itself.?

The only thing more enfeebling for a Prime Minister than watching him duck a decision of national importance by hiding behind a legal opinion is the sight of him ducking a decision of national importance by telling people to wait for a series of regulations from the snoozers in state bureaucracies.

But don’t worry Liberals, Albo’s going nowhere.

Originally published as James Campbell: Albo not going anywhere but can the government recover?