Jacinta Allan has left behind the inherited mess and set off on a trip that will begin to forge her own path
On the eve of her first anniversary as Premier, the India trip represents perhaps the single biggest move we’ve seen from Jacinta Allan in stepping out of Daniel Andrews’ shadow.
Opinion
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In her first overseas trip as Premier, Jacinta Allan has a clear message for India: Victoria is open for business.
And so too, it seems, is Jacinta Allan.
It’s taken almost a year to get this far, but on the eve of her first anniversary as Premier the trip represents perhaps the single biggest move we’ve seen from Allan in stepping out of the shadow of Daniel Andrews.
For Dan, it was all about China.
For Allan, India is the future.
She has long believed in the importance of strengthening the bilateral relationship between Victoria and India and the benefits that will bring.
Now she’s launching Victoria’s new India Strategy – almost 15 years after she first wrote to then premier John Brumby advocating for stronger strategic relations with India.
It will coincide with four days of meetings with senior government and business leaders to promote Victoria and drive trade and investment outcomes. But why India?
Allan has long believed its huge population offers immense untapped potential including in education and education technology, innovation in industry, the creative sector, and the wider visitor economy.
We already enjoy strong investment, trade, education and cultural ties. According to Invest Victoria, India is our ninth-largest source of foreign direct investment, worth $150m in 2022-23.
At the same time, India was Victoria’s 13th-largest trading partner and 12th-largest exporting market. Two-way trade is now worth almost $3bn a year while total exports inject $719m into the local economy.
Allan wants to see those numbers boom. Which is why the government has come out swinging against the federal government’s plans to cap the intake of foreign students.
Education has been one of the great success stories of the Indian-Victorian relationship. India is our largest source for international students, worth almost $15bn a year and supporting more than 60,000 jobs.
But with current enrolments still lagging behind pre-Covid levels, the foreign student cap plan threatens both Victoria’s reputation and its economy. University of Melbourne modelling has warned the caps could see almost $6bn ripped from Victoria’s economy as well as thousands of job losses over the next few years.
Tourism, too, is another area in which there is room to grow. Of the 25 million Indian tourists who spend more than $25bn each year, just a fraction of them make their way to Victoria.
Australia India Institute chief Lisa Singh said the importance of this trip couldn’t be over-estimated.
“Being on the ground is what makes the difference and it’s important that government leaders visit India to show that they are taking the relationship seriously,” she said.
“Victoria was the first state to implement an India Strategy, and the Premier is showing leadership by refreshing this strategy as a first priority. With nearly half of India’s population under the age of 25, skilling and educating India’s youth should continue to be a strong priority for the Victorian government.”
Given the state of Victoria’s finances Allan knows how vital it is to pull any lever that could contribute to the economy. With few options left – there’s nothing to sell, more taxes would be political poison and spending cuts can only go so far – India represents significant potential.
There is of course also the local electoral opportunities.
Victoria is home to Australia’s largest Indian population and the fastest-growing Indian diaspora, much of it in either Labor heartlands like Wyndham, Werribee, Point Cook and Laverton or across key southeast seats from Noble Park to Cranbourne East, which are critical to electoral success.
Pollsters say any seat that has a high number of Indian Australians is good news for Labor right now.
About 85 per cent of them vote Labor in Victoria, with drivers including Allan’s criticism of the international student caps contributing to this pattern.
Whatever the driving factors behind the trip, it is a glimpse of Allan’s vision for Victoria.
Until now it’s all been tying up the loose ends from the Andrews administration.
When she took the top job, Allan and her team came up with a list of problems they felt needed fixing and set about knocking them off one by one. They ranged from duck hunting, to health, to youth justice reforms and winding back Victoria’s attack on gas.
With the list virtually all dealt with, Allan has left behind the inherited mess, and set off on a trip that will begin to forge her own path.
Make no mistake, the mess will be waiting for her when she gets back: eye-watering debt, a health system under siege, battles with each of the state’s emergency services, a fight with energy industry stakeholders, growing caucus disunity and plunging polling.
And that’s just for starters.
But if the first 12 months of Allan’s reign was about clearing the decks, she’s now ready to chart her own course for success.
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