Israel’s war: What will it mean for world’s armies

The Israel-Hamas conflict has left many wondering what happens next. See what it could mean for the world’s armies, including Australia.

Less than a week ago there was a parade in Gaza City that went barely noticed.

The marching balaclava-clad column of more than 4000 Palestinian militants carrying weapons, rockets and drones took to the streets on October 4 to mark the 36th anniversary of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement establishing.

Officials proudly told residents the locally-made Buraq missiles were new and yet to be used “against the enemy” but had a range of 85km while the Badr 3 rocket was improved and able to carry a 400kg warhead.

The drones, the public was told, could be fully armed and strike “deep into Israel” if need be.

The strength of the brag and display was clearly lost on Israeli intelligence as days later the same men and weapons were used with devastating effect.

But it’s what happens next that has left the world catching its breath.

Many analysts have described this as being Israel’s 9/11 moment but could this attack also actually lead to a 20-year conflict in the Middle East that would drag in half the world’s armies including Australia and leave the region and protagonists (Taliban) exactly the same?

Certainly Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has said the “murderous surprise” attack would create a long war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pictured here in late September in Jerusalem. Picture: AFP

“I don’t know where it is going exactly but one thing is for sure, what was the accepted norm can no longer continue,” former Israeli intelligence officer now Affiliate Research Associate Dr Ran Porat from the Australian Centre for Jewish Civilisation at Monash University said.

“Israel is talking openly about toppling Hamas which if it was done in 2007 after Hamas led the coup-de-tat then we would be in a different story but that’s history …. After 9/11 the US conquered two States, two countries but Israel is not the US but people are expecting something of immense proportions to make a point. Everybody is talking the tough talk let’s see if they can walk the tough walk”.

A plume of smoke rises above buildings in Gaza City during an Israeli air strike on October 8, 2023. Picture: AFP

A man walks past an Israeli police station in Sderot after it was damaged during battles to dislodge Hamas militants who were stationed inside. Picture: AFP

Dr Porat said a land invasion of Gaza was no longer an ‘if” but a “when” as Netanyahu would be looking for a game-changing reaction to the game changer Hamas attack and mass kidnap event.

Israel has a huge weapons arsenal at its disposal, including nuclear warheads, and is unlikely to need the US carrier group of warships now re-tasked to move to the region.

But the fear is if other well-armed militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Iran and its proxies see this as an opportunity to broaden the conflict against Israel and its allies.

That said and while the world collectively calls for restraint, the Hamas attack was unprecedented and it is likely Israel’s response will be equally as unprecedented and what that leads to is hard to predict.