Even massive swings against Labor aren’t translating to votes for the Opposition
Jacinta Allan lacks the factional prowess of Daniel Andrews but she has one thing going for her as she prepares to stare down agitators in her own party.
Opinion
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Those inside Labor plotting a leadership change have their work cut out for them.
First, they have grossly underestimated the resolve of Premier Jacinta Allan.
Secondly, they might be over-estimating the current threat posed by the Victorian opposition.
Allan’s steely vow to fight on amid growing resentment and anger among her Caucus colleagues on Thursday was indicative of two things: her enormous self belief and her steadfast commitment to the job.
Allan wouldn’t be drawn on Herald Sun revelations that senior party powerbrokers have for weeks been in talks about forcing her out of the job given the government’s disastrous polling and her personal approval rating sinking to record lows.
Instead she vowed to fight on, making it clear to disgruntled colleagues that if they wanted her gone, they’d have a fight on their hands.
Despite public protestations to the contrary, Allan knows concern is rapidly growing among Labor MPs, many of which face losing their jobs in 19 months’ time unless she can reverse the government’s current trajectory.
She lacks the factional prowess of her predecessor Daniel Andrews, who was able to circumnavigate factional issues because of his unmatched ability to win elections.
Andrews was a political animal who used his electoral success to lock in a team behind him.
Allan is not that and as a result we are seeing for the first time in over a decade the sort of leadership instability that has plagued the Liberal Party and relegated them to three terms on the Opposition benches.
And recent polling shows no sign that they’re ready to have another shot at government.
Opposition Leader Brad Battin said himself on Thursday: “we also know we have a lot of work to do.”
Latest polling showed the Coalition’s primary vote had dropped by two points since Battin took over from John Pesutto in December.
It still leads Labor 41 to 29, and is a nose ahead on a two party preferred basis 51 to 49.
But alarm bells have sounded inside the Liberal Party given the party’s fortunes have gone backwards in recent months.
And one-in-three Victorians have no idea who the Opposition Leader is.
The Liberal Party has a massive hill to climb, needing to pick up 16 seats next year to form government.
The recent Werribee by-election showed that even massive swings against the Labor Party aren’t translating to votes for the Opposition.
Which is a major problem for Battin, and potentially Jacinta Allan’s saving grace.
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