Ellen Whinnett: ScoMo-Andrews bromance facing a few bumps in the road
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Premier Daniel Andrews deserve credit for working well together so far but an inquiry into the bushfires could soon threaten their bromance, writes Ellen Whinnett.
Opinion
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The bromance between Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews and Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been on full public display through the bushfire crisis, with both men publicly praising the work of the other. This continues a pattern established last year, where the pair decided to work together on the infrastructure agenda and boost major projects in Victoria.
It plays out well for both of them. Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg are keen to shovel money out the door and bringing forward infrastructure spending is a great way to stimulate the economy without officially stimulating the economy.
Andrews and Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas are running out of money, so they’re equally keen to soak up Canberra’s largesse in order to keep big projects moving. And if Morrison and Andrews aren’t particularly close personally, it doesn’t matter. Governments working together is always a good thing and the public can only benefit from it, so the marriage of convenience is effective. Frydenberg and Pallas seem to be talking regularly too.
The mutual admiration has remained in place during the bushfire crisis. Curiously, the state-federal argy-bargy seemed to be mostly between Morrison’s people and Gladys Berejiklian’s Liberal state government in NSW.
Stories were briefed out that the NSW government had declined help from the Australian Defence Force, while competing stories emerged accusing Morrison of throwing Berejiklian “under the bus’’ to divert from his own, early missteps responding to the crisis.
For what it’s worth, several Morrison ministers have told the Herald Sun the Andrews government has been terrific to deal with so far this bushfire season — always able to be contacted and keen to work through logistic problems. It’s like the East West Link war never happened.
But the summer of political love could come to a quick halt if the Morrison government proceeds with a royal commission examining the causes of the fire.
A major inquiry will be held, that’s for certain, but Morrison has vowed to consult with the states and territories before he decides whether there should be a royal commission. Royal commissions are the most powerful of inquiries; they can compel people to appear, demand evidence be produced, and wander well away from their original terms of reference.
And that’s where it gets a bit tricky. At this very moment, Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission is investigating the long-running, stinky industrial dispute involving the Country Fire Authority and the Metropolitan Fire Brigade. This includes the dealings between the Andrews government and the United Firefighters Union under secretary Peter Marshall.
IBAC is looking at events since 2014, as the UFU succeeded in getting more authority over the CFA and its volunteer workforce. So far, the watchdog’s secretive powers have kept its work largely under wraps, but that could change. Also this week it was revealed the CFA had shed 5000 volunteers in the past eight years. While there are various reasons for that, and some members have moved into paid firefighting, it’s still an unwelcome trend.
And it’s no coincidence that while NSW, South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland have signed up to the federal government’s offer of $6000 tax-free payments to volunteers fighting long-term fires this year, Victoria is yet to commit.
Andrews is also unlikely to welcome intense scrutiny of prescribed burning activities in Victoria. The royal commission into the catastrophic Black Saturday fires recommended a rolling 5 per cent target for burn-offs, about 390,000ha a year, and the government is now doing just one third of that.
Clearly picking up concerns about perceived environmental restrictions being placed on fuel reduction burns, the Morrison government is keen for Andrews to be scrutinised on that.
However, it’s a more nuanced argument than Canberra would have you believe. In 2011, Neil Comrie, appointed to oversee how the royal commission recommendations were being implemented, recommended a move away from those targets and instead take a risk-based approach. Comrie, a former Victorian chief commissioner of police, was appointed to the bushfire role by the former Liberal government in Victoria.
Morrison, too, might find things getting a little uncomfortable in the glare of a royal commission spotlight. No inquiry would be credible without also looking at the drought, changing weather patterns, and the role of climate change in driving extreme weather.
Senior ministers, including Morrison, have said this week that they accept the science and that human intervention is affecting the climate. Frydenberg, who no doubt understands the sensitivities of how this debate plays out in his wealthy electorate of Kooyong, made the point several times at a press conference on Tuesday.
All their work was undone however by the climate sceptic Liberal MP from NSW, Craig Kelly, who went on British TV to dispute arguments that humans were influencing the weather. He backed this up by calling the highly-qualified meteorologist who challenged him an “ignorant Pommy weather girl on Facebook”. He deleted the post after infuriated staff from the Prime Minister’s Office intervened.
But for now, the political focus must remain on the relief operations — fires are still burning and two danger days are again emerging in Victoria from Thursday. Those who have lost loved ones, houses and communities must be supported. Blame can wait until later — there will no doubt be plenty of it to go around.
Ellen Whinnett is national political editor.