James Campbell: Liberals ponder how to turn No votes into electoral success

There were plenty of people in Canberra last week anxious to talk about the defeated Voice referendum and what it all meant – for them, writes James Campbell.

As you can imagine, there were plenty of people in Canberra last week anxious to talk about the defeated Voice referendum and what it all meant.

It would be nice to be able to say they wanted to know what it meant for black and white relations or the future of plebiscite democracy in Australia. But I’m sure I’m not going to rock your world when I tell you what they mostly want to talk about was what it all meant for them.

Government folk were, of course, sad and a little bit worried about what this disaster will mean for the PM’s standing with the public, something which won’t be clear for some time. They were also reflecting on what his performance over this journey says about his political judgment, which they haven’t had to think about since the disastrous first week of last year’s election campaign.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Government folk are a little bit worried about what the Voice disaster will mean for his standing with the public. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

If they were taking any consolation, it was that poll after poll shows most of us don’t care much one or another about Indigenous issues. But still they couldn’t help reflecting on the fact that only 17 Labor-held seats voted Yes compared to the 61 which voted No, in 31 of which the margin was above 60 per cent. How could it happen that the party had misread basically every Labor seat outside the inner cities? How indeed.

ALP’s counterparts, while staring at the piles of No votes, want to know what it will take to turn them into votes for the Liberal Party. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg via Getty Images

But while Labor MPs were pondering what this meant for the ALP’s future, their counterparts across the chamber were staring at these piles of No votes like dogs at a butcher’s shop window. What, they want to know most, is what will it take to turn them into votes for the Liberal Party? Can this be done at all?

It’s no exaggeration to say that on the answer to this question the future of Australian politics hangs, because if it’s yes, then Labor is finished as a majority party of government.

Smelling an opportunity, a veteran Liberal texted me that, after handing out last Saturday in one of the poorest parts of Australia – which voted 77 per cent No – he was now convinced the party “should double the dole and increase the top marginal rate on Teals”.

He was only half-joking but he’d put his finger on the impediment to going for full throttle for these seats, namely that while their social values may increasingly align with the Liberal Party, they are miles apart on welfare spending and who should be taxed to pay for it. Not to mention industrial relations, just about the only thing every Liberal agrees on.

Labor has always been able to scare people by telling them they know in their hearts that, if the Liberals had their way, they’d cut Medicare and education while making it easier for your boss to sack you. Picture: AAP Image/Dave Hunt

The problem is a socially conservative Liberal Party that didn’t believe in smashing up unions wouldn’t be the Liberal Party, it would be the old Democratic Labour Party.

There’s also the far from small matter of the fact that, in a tax-and-spend race, your money would be on Labor saluting.

Labor has always been able to scare people by telling them they know in their hearts that, if the Liberals had their way, they’d cut Medicare and education while making it easier for your boss to sack you.

In the aftermath of JobKeeper, this charge would have lacked its usual potency. A senior Labor official recently admitted that a 2021 election in this atmosphere had been the party’s nightmare scenario.

In general, selling the conservative parties as a safe-pair-of-hands in Labor’s blue-collar heartland is always going to be easier in government because, though they gave it a pretty good go with Mediscare in 2016, the ALP’s scare campaigns lack the same bite.

Can it be done from opposition? The Liberals need to answer this question for themselves quickly and honestly. Because if the answer is no, they are going to need to pivot fast back to trying to win back Teal land.

Originally published as James Campbell: Liberals ponder how to turn No votes into electoral success