Bill Shorten believed election would end up a photo finish

BILL Shorten is a better judge than most. He was predicting last night’s result — or the lack of it — for months, speaking of pinching seats as opposed to standing up elections, writes Patrick Carlyon.

Bill Shorten and wife Chloe vote at Moonee Ponds West Public School polling booth in Melbourne. Picture: Mick Tsikas

BILL Shorten is a better judge than most. He was predicting last night’s result — or the lack of it — for months, even his own staff, in their private moments, had spoken of pinching seats as opposed to standing up elections.

He felt that he was “closing at the right time” yesterday. He was so bullish that, yesterday afternoon, he referred to an unlikely Cox Plate win from almost four decades ago at his election night venue, the Moonee Valley racecourse.

“Remember 1982,” Shorten told a journalist, recalling race caller Bill Collins’ assertion that “Kingston Town can’t win”.

At last night’s party, the early murmur befitted a wake. No air of anticipation, no sense of fresh life. Even the columns of red balloons seemed lonely. While Shorten sat at his nearby home with family, the Labor faithful pondered the numbers and tried to avoid the easy conclusions.

But something was happening, something bigger than the arrival of the CFMEU’s John Setka. Sporadic eruptions punctuated a growing din. When seats began to be pinched, in Tasmania and NSW mostly, Shorten volunteer Jan Laczynshi bit his fingernails and dared to explore the possibilities. After all, “Bill is good at doing deals”.

“I’m excited for Bill because I thought it might be the worst day of his life,” he said. “But it might be the best day of his life.”

The mood simmered in the lull of confusion. The big prize would not be the ALP’s, but nor perhaps would it fall to the Coalition.

Shorten had hedged his bets earlier in the day, For the cameras, during an election day whirl of western Sydney marginal seats, he savoured the “taste of democracy” and wolfed down a hot dog. It was what happened next, when the media pack was not invited, that seemed surprising.

He ventured to the seat of Greenway. Shorten did not want to advertise that he was helping the ALP’s Michelle Rowland, because the perception would be that she needed it — despite holding the seat by three per cent.

Did the ALP fear losing seats it might be expected to increase margins in? Was it travelling that badly?

Indeed, Shorten’s bustle itself invited its own conclusions. Covering four seats on election day contrasted with Kevin Rudd’s perceived lethargy in 2013, when journalists were kept waiting for hours past his solitary scheduled campaign event on election morning.

It also marked a difference with his opponent. Shorten’s everyday clamour for events distinguished his longer campaign from Turnbull’s, as did his willingness to risk ridicule with his higher visibility.

Yesterday, while Turnbull yesterday chose a more traditional “small target” approach of off-the-cuff small talk while voting for the media cameras, Shorten received social media critiques for his style of approach to his hot dog.

It’s unclear how effective last-minute campaigning can be. What’s clearer, despite Shorten’s projections of ease and confidence, was the ALP’s desperation to score in Sydney’s west.

Counting last night suggested his strategy helped. The ALP seemed set to keep Greenway and pick up a swag of other west Sydney seats.

In Tasmania, it had cut a swathe of wins.

The ALP was ahead in Lindsay last night, where Shorten yesterday shelled out $40 for lamingtons and browsed a book stall with titles including Shoot To Kill and Darkness Falls.

It’d been a long campaign. How was he holding up? “I feel outstanding,” he said, before hugging more kids, as if to prove that he would “hit the ground running tomorrow”.

It was election morning. It sounded much the same as it had begun — with Shorten saying he could and would win. Yet Shorten’s feelings about the past eight weeks could only be measured at the very end, and that was taking longer than many pundits had predicted.

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