Albanese in front, Shorten out in the cold and Andrews holding his breath

A new internal power sharing agreement has left some Labor MPs out in the cold and Daniel Andrews holding his breath.

Andrews political nous should see him through the power play but if his health sees him step aside it will be “on for young and old”. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Andrew Henshaw

Every time Labor stitches up a new “stability deal” it has the potential to cause a flurry of instability.

By their very nature, agreements to control power and political territory mean there will be winners and losers.

If they get it right, like when Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy brokered peace (and power) in their heyday, then some sort of order can be maintained.

But if the wrong people are left outside the tent, things can get messy.

The new deal signed this week, which includes the conservative union representing retail workers cosying up to the Transport Workers Union and much of the Socialist Left, is a risky proposition.

It provides the deal-makers, led by deputy opposition leader Richard Marles, the SDA in Victoria, and supporters of Anthony Albanese, theoretically in charge with about 60-65 per cent of factions signing on.

Richard Marles led the deal making which has left him and Albanese theoretically in charge. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Christian Gilles

Those on the outside, however, are no shrinking violets.

Shorten, who still commands great respect in the right wing of the party and is a former AWU boss, was left in the cold.

So too was a powerful group of left wing unions such as the CFMEU, as well as Victorian NUW MPs who are still right-wingers despite their union’s national body heading to the left.

While there will no doubt be efforts to make deals within the deal – some Labor folk say it’s strange for the ETU and its boss Troy Gray to sign on without the CFMEU and Gray’s comrade in arms John Setka – the peace sought might not be long-lasting.

This is largely because the Victorian branch of the party is in a hiatus, triggered when powerbroker Adem Somyurek was accused of branch stacking.

When that ends, if the numbers who were with unions and groupings around Somyurek, Shorten and co stay firm, then there will be a mismatch between who’s in the stability deal and the numbers on the ground.

Albo backers are desperate to shore up his support over the next year to ward off any threat to his leadership and would be happy – for now.

Marles and co will be happy if they can get their man and Conroy protégé Sam Rae into the parliament.

Bill Shorten could be left out in the cold by the new deal but is no shrinking violet. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

They don’t seem to care whether local members get a say in preselections.

But then what?

Several Labor MPs this week warned that things could get ugly if losing sides decide to fight back.

The problem then is that a stability deal causes real instability – even if it’s a minority that’s causing mischief. They have nothing to lose.

This was Somyurek’s mistake as he rose to power. If you take everything from people, they have nothing left to lose and will do whatever it takes to tear you down.

When asked about what the stability deal means for Dan Andrews, Labor MPs and ministers said it wouldn’t be good for any leader if there is instability, but it wouldn’t necessarily derail another election victory.

In theory the new groupings – including the premier’s faction – would control a majority in the parliament.

That’s if Dan returns from his back injury, which has already sidelined him for months.

Senior ministers said Andrews has shown the political nous and brutal pragmatism to work through such matters.

If he limps off into the sunset, then whoever takes over will be without the public credibility and the internal house of cards that Dan has carefully crafted over a decade.

One MP said that could be disastrous if someone takes over without a similar political brain.

Put another way: “it will be on for young and old”.