AFL, NRL at a loss as fans turn off grand finals
The AFL and NRL suffered grand final ratings disasters. So who should be more worried, the leagues or the free-to-air networks? Colin Vickery asks if this is the latest evidence of the slow death of free-to-air TV?
Opinion
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Should alarm bells be going off at AFL and NRL headquarters? Both football codes just experienced their worst grand final television ratings in two decades. The AFL Grand Final between Richmond and Greater Western Sydney averaged 2.19 million across the five capital cities — a 20 per cent drop compared with last year.
The Sydney Roosters versus Canberra Raiders clash did even worse with 1.866 million. That is the first time an NRL Grand Final has rated below two million viewers since the OzTAM system was introduced in 2003.
The big question for AFL and NRL chiefs is whether those results are a one-off aberration or signs of a long-term downward trend.
AFL boss Gillon McLachlan will surely be disappointed. In August figures showed ratings for home and away games were up about 7 per cent compared with last year. One of the reasons for the rise was better matches on Channel 7 on Friday nights.
But the Ashes cricket, on Nine from August 1 to September 16 — Round 20 through to the semi-finals — halted that momentum.
Steve Smith’s heroics and David Warner’s dismal form kept Aussie viewers glued to their screens.
It wasn’t until the preliminary finals that the AFL had any clear air but by then the damage had likely been done. It didn’t help that the AFL Grand Final was so one-sided. The match was pretty much over by half time. The final result, a 114 to 25 blowout, didn’t make compelling viewing.
I’m sure plenty of viewers not aligned to Richmond or GWS bowed out before the end. Not even the prospect of Dusty Martin magic could keep them engaged. Another minus is that GWS doesn’t have a huge supporter base to boost ratings in the Harbour City.
Contrast this year with the 3.196 million for the 2012 AFL Grand Final when the Swans beat Hawthorn. That day, a whopping 740,000 Sydney viewers watched.
What are the excuses for the poor NRL Grand Final result? That match went down to the wire.
The fact that the Melbourne Storm wasn’t playing is certainly one reason. Last year 551,000 Melbourne viewers tuned in for the Roosters versus Storm. This year that audience was down to 320,000.
The really big ratings for both codes come when they attract viewers from cities outside their traditional fan base — Sydney for AFL and Melbourne for NRL.
Channel 9 is spruiking strong streaming figures as a potential reason for the disappointing free-to-air outcome. But the numbers were also down in Sydney, dropping from 892,000 to 832,000. I think that hints at another issue for the NRL.
These days a lot of fans are more excited by State of Origin than the grand final. This year’s State of Origin Game 1 had a metro audience of 2.178 million. But that was still down on the 2.353 million for Game 1 last year and the 2.708 million in 2016.
The fact that this year’s NRL Grand Final ended in controversy can’t have helped the code. Anger boiled over when referee Ben Cummins reversed a decision to give the Raiders six more tackles with 10 minutes to go. The reversal came during live play with scores at 8-8. That led to a turnover and a winning Roosters try. The NRL will hold a review into the debacle.
Some TV experts believe the disappointing ratings for this year’s grand finals is further evidence of the diminishing power of the free-to-air networks.
For a number of years televised sport has managed to weather the storm of fierce competition from new streaming services and social media — but maybe that era is ending.
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The days of dramas doing more than a million viewers on Seven, Nine and Ten are gone. Now they’re lucky to do half that. Every now and then a reality show breaks through, but the list of duds is lengthy.
Younger viewers, especially, are looking at alternatives and if the AFL and NRL can’t capture those eyes, they will suffer long term pain. The next generation of fans won’t be there.
If I was McLachlan, I’d be hoping the early season ratings rises are a better indication of season 2020 audiences than the Grand Final.
NRL boss Todd Greenberg might want to start praying. The indicators are that it might take some divine intervention to turn around the rugby league ratings drop.
Colin Vickery is a Melbourne writer and TV critic.